Click chart to enlargeCF is approaching more reasonable levels (center of channel). They report after the bell today. We have a position in CF despite earnings coming out tonight because the position is only about 30% of what we're trying to accumulate and it is sufficiently hedged.
If the stock continues to sell off today (into the 120's), we'll be adding more, along with adding to SMN. Following POT's report this morning, we have no qualms about the intermediate term fundamental strength of this sector. Today should not be seen as a reversal of trend, but rather an opportunity to begin reaccumulating long positions in these names.
12 comments:
Oh boy! MER is truly turning it on. Damn neat prediction snot.
Snot, CF got away from me. Never came down to my 132 order. I bought some MER though and sold it for a quick healthy profit. At least, there was some use of the rally to me. Looks like CHNR is not participating today.Good thing I did not put in a buy order
--clarke
You can thank Clarke for the MER trade. Hopefully these Ag names are just beginning a consolidation/correction phase that takes them back to the bottoms of their channels. Shouldn't take more than a month if that's the case. It would be nice to get into them well off their highs.
Also keeping an eye on steel (MTL and SID), materials correct along with Ag/commodities. MTL in the low 140's (midchannel) would be a nice place to start accumulating.
WTF WTF!
Who recommand this piece of shit, huge sell off ah.
Gosh tomorrow more corrections SELL b4 it reaches the bottom of the trend channel this is pos.
I am still waiting out CF. It has exceeded 38% retracement. My first order is in at 128 (50%). Lets see if it fills. I think this may be dicey, since it is already below the mid-line.I still think, time correction is necessary for Ag/steel.
Oh! well I have another 3 days before my MER day trade settles anyways.
--clarke
Does CF really deserve to be treated like the red headed stepchild of the Ag sector this morning? If POT doesn't get dragged down then CF shouldn't remain down very long either.
We picked up some more CF in after hours at 130. We're just going to keep accumulating a basket of Ag names as they drop. If the Fed doesn't cut next week, they could take another hit as that would stabilize the dollar and keep commodity prices from rising.
If we can get these stocks at the bottom of the channel, we'd back up the truck because the longer term outlook is unchanged.
Was waiting for 130 on CF this morning before I bought. LOL! Wow, did that one get away from me fast. The intraday movement on CF is like Mr. Toad's Wild Ride!
I'm sure by the middle of next week I'll get my chance again.
Congrats to all who had the Kahones this morning to pull the trigger!
Ag trades like the exchanges used to trade about two years back. Awesome intraday action.
Thanks for the great picks this week Snot. I missed CF's move this morning and wasn't happy about it, but then caught MTL's pullback and it turned out to be almost as good as CF's was, so drinks are on me tonight!
Great weekend,
Craig
MOS seems to be getting oversold here @ 122.70.
That last downgrade of POT is going to push everything Ag down in this last half-hour...anyone adding more SMN ahead of the Fed?
Sold some CF today in the 145's, just had too much of it considering it went up 15 from last week's lows.
Looking to add if the Ag names correct after the Fed hints that the rate cuts are over.
Also waiting for a better price on MTL or SID.
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