Click chart to enlargeBull market or bear? From a technical standpoint, it's being decided right here at the 200dma. This could be a long drawn out battle. We've kept all of the Ag we bought on the last dip, and are now 50% invested. Seems fitting for an indecision/inflection point of this significance.
35 comments:
I totally agree Snot. Both the DOW and S&P seem to not want to venture very far from the 13k/1400 mark.
And of course today's give-back of yesterday's little rally could easily be reversed again tomorrow.
I hate to think that we could go through months more of this, but unfortunately that outcome seems very likely.
Feels kind of like December, where you pretty much just resign yourself to waiting until January for the "action" to start back up again in earnest.
Hopefully it won't take that long for the market to make up it's mind. I hate waiting!
Gerald
Snot, you are correct. Our office traded some names today with the momentum but basically was able to tread watter.
We are all kinda laughing at the markets today.
OIL..come on now:)
We did buy FXP at 59 and was able to sell today around 66. That was a nice trade. My super moved into SKF day's ago and that showed profits today.
I'm still at my desk wondering what I"m going to do this week.
I did sell MTL today for a 9% gain.
Take care SNOT. I look forward to your next post.
Actually, probably a point of technicality. This is the region of the 50% retracement. 1438 SPX is around 63% retracement. Sure, I think this will be the high for sometime.
But the question is if it was a 63% retracement, instead and then fallen, would it not have been a bear market??
--clarke
What is the significance of the 200 day average? And DOW has already crossed over the 50, 75, 100, and 125. It has crossed over and retraced the 150. It hasn't gotten to the 250 yet. Why is the 200 DMA all that significant?
the 200 dma is often used as an indicator of whether we are in a bull market (over the 200dma) or in a bear market (under the 200dma)
Hey anonymous moving average questioner, why didn't you mention the 175dma? And the 225dma? You also forgot to mention the 25dma. Why don't you ask about the 1,000dma as well?? LOL
If you have to ask why the 200dma is the most significant measurement maybe you should "invest" in a stock buying class and quit trolling message boards looking for a clue, because obviously you don't have one at this point!
hahah, what is the need to be offensive? He is indeed making a valid point, imo. Infact, to me this is very interesting.
The indicator of bull/bear market and the 200d should not be concrete. I thought it should initially and then assumed this 200d retracement chart would happen as early as last april beginning.
As per numbers, I can see this a 50% retracement from the lows. I can't seem to find in history 68% retracements. I don't have charts beyond 2001. It did not happen in 2001. Who is to say it cannot happen now or in the future? Does it not take just the large investment banks in cohorts to wreck this adage?
Secretly, I would love to see the SPX to sniff 1438 just for fun and to just make things interesting.
--clarke
I'm with you clarke- I've been waiting for the SPX to close @ 1430 or above which will be my cue to start scaling into SDS big time.
With so many expecting some sort of "re-test" or "correction" or "retracement" of the SPX down to it's March lows again I'm betting that in the end it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Craig
That being said, I don't think spx to 1438 will happen this time. The turn date was yesterday, imo. I will very surprised to see us cross 13100 again, for a month at least. And it is very difficult to time the top exactly, so as snot has so often said, one needs to buy slowly and keep adding to positions.
SDS is a good bet. though, my bet was on SKF. For me the MER chart is the clearest picture in the financials and tells the story beautifully. If you see carefully, we broke the steeper line and then hit a gentler downtrend and are now headed down again. I expect a bounce back around MER 46.5 region. Lets watch.
Good luck to you all.
--clarke
We'll all get one more bite at the SPX apple. It'll make one last valiant attempt to push up through 1438 before it crumbles like a cake left out in the rain. And while it may not hit 1438, it'll tap 1420 again and that'll have to be good enough.
New prediction: more foreclosures.
And not due to subprime this time, but due to the shock of the $6,000 heating bill this winter. Far be it from Americans to plan that far ahead and start budgeting for it now. By this winter, gas could be $5.00 a gallon. Fill a 275gal tank 4 times and you're looking at an extra $1,500 a month that the average American simply won't have.
What do you think about going long nat gas? The Nat Gas Index (XNG--X) looks awesome. Check out UNG, GAZ, FCG, NGT, & NGS.
Craig
Isn't nat gas just a bet on oil? They trade in lockstep. See chart of ticker symbol OIL.
We're still just holding Ag, awaiting the market plunge. The stock market is the only thing that has improved over the past few months. Everything else points to an economy that is just as weak or weaker than the one we had 4 months ago. Perhaps the rebate checks will provide enough falsity to the retail sales report that the truth will be masked for a little longer while oil has a chance to edge up to $150. It won't be until a major airline goes under that people start to link higher oil prices with corporate profits.
For a fun trade, I did play the plunge on oil, quickly in & out of TSO, for a quick profit. But the risk of a short on oil is just too much risk. Have been wanting to get back in Ag, but POT is still showing its strength. I still like DSX. Waiting for the earnings of DSX to get over with before getting back into it. I think the chart looks very nice for a push until the low 40s.
Keep posting
--clarke
Also forgot to add, I heard Marc Faber talking recently. He said he is currently into the forestry sector, which is ironical given the housing/furniture slump. I guess he was alluding to diminishing forest cover and timber etc. I am definitely in awe of him. I looked at a few charts like VCP. The charts look quite strong.
--clarke
DE getting overdone here in pre-market. Any buyers out there at 84?
I bought after the open at $85 and more at $83.50 after hearing two experts talk about it on CNBC. Hopefully once the profit taking is over and the shorts start to cover, it will pop back up $3 or $4 this week. I doubt this will be a sustained short attack.
DE hasn't found a bottom yet. Has ag overall found a top temporarily. Ag stocks have been weak compared to the market for the last few days. The same is true today.
DE is right at the bottom of its 2 year trendline, somewhere around 81.9 for today as per my understanding. It has further resistance near 79. Probably that can be used as a stop.
This one was posted by snot sometime ago.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_v1g4HetcNhc/SAaBY3YW0PI/AAAAAAAAADM/AI5rDcamA0E/s1600/de.JPG
Also SMN is right at the bottom of its descending trendline, near 28.45 or so. Probably a good starting place to scale into some SMN.
--clarke
Looks like today is the day we're getting our second bite at the apple. If the Dow manages to close above 13K and the S&P above 1420, I'm completely out of SSO and starting to buy SDS...not to mention added more to SMN & DUG today. Market may run a bit longer, but 1438 S&P looks like a harder and harder target as this sideways action grinds on.
Once this market decides it's time to fold, it's going to do so at lightning speed "and if you're not IN then you'll be OUT!"
Thanks Heidi Klum.
Iv your interested in a reasonably safe play on the rising dollar have a look at Sony. It trades very close to the dollar and is in the bottom half of a 40 to 60 channel (just about). I bought jan calls to leverage it a bit and have been trading it since oct o6. Been out for the last few months, but today it went through its resistance at 50.06
What a lame late day fade!!!!
Yes, weak closing. Glad I sold several positions into the rally. Loaded up on DE. It is at the bottom of the channel after a severe haircut, so I hope it bounced back to $85 by Friday's OE. Without DE I'm mostly in cash after selling into this little rally. Snot, is ag weakening? MOO, for example, has lagged the market for several days.
Should get a good price on MTL soon. SID hit the top of its trendchannel. DE looks good here, but not to buy a full position all at once. Just have a feeling this market is going to drop hard pretty soon. We're not trying to time it, just holding Ag. It doesn't seem like its weakened. Most of the Ag names have just been moving up along their typical slope. Nothing fun to watch, but slow and steady is good.
We're only 50% invested (all Ag). Can't believe this market can go much higher with oil where it is. It can only go sideways or down. If it goes higher, it's going to crash.
The indexes got rejected at the 200dma again today. Perhaps the market won't correct until all three reach it. The Dow reached it a while ago, the Nasdaq reached it today, but the S&P has yet to touch it.
We would not buy AAPL here. Too much too soon. It's overvalued already.
The problem i see is where on earth is the catalyst for a fall going to come from? We have already had MBI post a loss of 10bn versus expectations of $2bn, The loss was the first major one due to Credit default swaps and the stock still went up 5%. Citi doubled its expected loss, raised 5bn and announced a sale of assets worth half its market cap. Oil is up 30% since the rally began, $100 is a distant memory, and now analysts are talking about $200. Indices are hitting resistances left right and center and yet the market is still staying strong. So i wonder, what is there left to happen that can cause a fall where all these catalysts have failed so miserably? At this stage it is more likely that even the smallest positive catalyst could send the market soaring whilst the negative ones couldnt be any bigger than what we have seen fail so far.
I almost shorted QLD today near its peak. I had sold my QLD on Tuesday. I didn't, turning my attention elsewhere. It dropped $3.00 in less than 2 hours. I almost shorted QLD, but "almost" doesn't count.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=QLD#chart2:symbol=qld;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Here is an article that is saying much of what you have been saying Snot about gov't figures.
Link
I'll try this again, since it didn't get posted. For the few who might not know how but want to provide an active link to a web site, do the following:
1. Type 2. Paste in the URL
3. Follow the URL with ">
4. Type in your name for the link, e.g. article about Snotwheel
5. Type
Hope this works and the html code doesn't activate and hide part of the message. If it does, Snot, please erase.
Yep, the code was activated. I redo steps 1 and 5 with spaces between each character. Remove the spaces except for the space after the first "a".
1. Type < a h r e f = "
5. Type < / a >
Snotwheel,
do you still hold MTL (expecting new highs on this runup), or sold it and wait for a pullback to the bottom of the channel? It had pretty big up-down swings for last 3-4 days, so I do not know what to expect.
Andrey
Conor, you seemed to answer your question in your own post. You make a great case for why the market "should" be 'running out of gas'!
No one can tell me that EVERYBODY out there isn't ready to hit the sell button at ANY type of bad news, perceived bad news, etc.
IMHO the path of least resistance is down, no "catalyst" needed. All that's needed is someone to throw a tiny snowball off the summit here, and let nature take it's course.
And when that snowball gets to the bottom (S&P 1200??) it'll be large enough to smash the ski lodge sitting there.
Of course you're welcome to go 100% all in long right now if you really believe that the smallest catalyst will send the market up.
But in your heart of hearts, you don't really believe that now do you? If you did you wouldn't be on a blog trying to get confirmation of your theory...you'd just go long and margin yourself to the hilt.
And if you're not ready to go long like that...that should tell you something.
GLTA out there,
Gerald
Do you guys think MTL stock split 3:1 (on May, 20 2008) would affect stock price/bahavior in short term?
One potential catalyst that could send the market flying upwards would be for oil to drop to below $100. One potential catalyst that could cause the market to drop would be for oil to spike to $150. Who knows which will happen?
Anyone paying attention to the solar sector this week, in particular SOL and CSIQ? Flying to the moon...
Looks like Goldman is betting oil is going up...they just said they expect oil to hit $141 by 2nd half 2008.
Gonna make a fortune on SDS in the coming weeks!!!
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