Click chart to enlargeA logarithmic chart of POT for anyone interested. We sold some MOS today just to take some profits along the way. In order to be tempted to sell heavily, we'd need to see a ridiculous run over the tops of the channels which happened in April as you can see from the chart above.
MOS is nearing the top of its channel, but it's an arithmetic channel. There's nothing stopping it from going parabolic like POT did. We're not calling a top in MOS yet, just lightening up because we hold nothing but Ag (and some DXD / SMN)
11 comments:
Sold some more MOS and some AGU. We've reduced our long Ag exposure from 70% of our portfolio to 56% at this point. Still waiting for a ridiculous surge to the upside to dump the rest.
Snot, are you gonna buy AGA when MOS hits $165? At the rate AGA is falling, it is going to be at $18 by then. Should be an easy 30% gain at that point. Maybe 50%.
AGA is a great idea, but only if Ag gets ridiculous. Instead of just buying AGA when MOS hits a certain price, we'll be looking to buy as all of the Ags extend beyond the tops of their channels. When the majority of them look like they've gone too far too fast, we'll layer into AGA and wait for the drop. It may take some patience, but at some point after the current rally is over, Ag will be available at its April prices once again.
Not sure if AGA is a great play base off fertilizer stock. AGA is a double inverse of that tracks tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index-Optimum Yield Agriculture. That index is composed of roughly equal percentages of corn, wheat, soybean, and sugar futures contracts.
Just recently on the news Iowa corn harvest was flood so expect price of corn to go up keeping the index up.
POT is a fertilizer or agricultural chemical (whichever term you prefer) play.
MOS is another fert play.
AGU is fert and pesticide play.
MON is a fert and seed play.
CF another fert play.
All these have other segments they do like equipment or analysis but what been driving all their stock higher and high is the potash sales and the increase priced that product commands.
So while AGA might be a good trade i don't think i would use fertilizer stocks as a buy signal.
We seem to miss out the recent run on SQM, the chart is amazing. what is your thought on this one?
Barron's article on fertilizer stocks with a chart on MOS suggesting that it may be time for a correction.
Link to the article
I do believe now is the time to buy RIO.
Just sold a lot of CF, AGU, MOS and some POT. Now down to only 20% of our account invested, mostly in POT at this point. Our short term target for POT is 250, but we'd be happy to get out anywhere in the 240's. We may watch these stocks go higher over the short term, but at some point you'll be able to buy them back at today's prices or lower, so there's no sense in holding onto them at these levels.
RIO does look good here. So does MTL. Looks like it just broke through a short term downtrending resistance line that began in late May. Next stop for MTL is hopefully 60.
shrug. MTL spends so much of its time in the overbought territory that I have a tough time analyzing it.
As POT and ag may be starting to correct, someone upgrades POT.
Link
So Snot, I guess this means that the correction could be short and swift, so be ready to get back in?
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