Where's Snot?

We haven't gone anywhere, just been busy. We aren't going to bail on this blog ever. We're in the market for the long haul. Anyway, now with a week or so of hindsight, since breaking support, the fert sector has been a wasteland. So were we right to sell them all, or wrong to have been in them in the first place? Fact is, we were right the first 3 times and wrong the last time. But that's the best we can do. All we know is that despite solid fundamentals and yada yada yada, there is a good chance that the fert stocks all start heading to zero. That's just what stocks do.
Our approach to the market is to buy the leading stocks in the leading sectors in a strong market. Right now, the market is too weak to be putting capital at risk. This next "sit-n-wait" period could take a long time to play out. The next place to invest your money will be the next big thing, and will likely be something you learn about outside of the investment world. When the internet was new, someone asked us "what is owl?" That was their way of pronunciating "AOL". We weren't sure ourselves at the time, but we kept hearing the letters over and over. A few weeks later, we had done enough research to convince ourselves that AOL was where we wanted to put our money. We're sitting on the sidelines until the next bull market. It will be driven by the next "owl"... whatever that may be. Tinkering around with the latest passing stock fad between now and then is a sure way to lose money. We would be interested in hearing others opinions about what the next revolution may be. Perhaps a new automobile company will spring up and produce nothing but water-powered cars, taking all other auto makers out of business. The Japanese have created a car that runs entirely on water. There's hydrogen in water, and hydrogen is a fuel. Whatever it is that makes the next bull market start running is not important right now. All that matters now is that people understand that we're in a bear, and it's too dangerous to put money at risk while the bear is still alive. The Dow could advance another 1,000 points to its 200dma and we'd still be in a bear. After seeing 12,500, we wouldn't be in the least bit suprised if the next stop is 10,000. This reminds of of 2000, when we sold everything and just waited it out. The market fell for the next few years. The wait was worthwhile, but very long. We invested in real estate instead, buying raw land because the tax burden on raw land is next to nothing.
Sorry to sound so depressing, but we have to call it like we see it. This whole Cramer notion of "stay in the game" is simply not good advice. Sometimes you have to recognize when the party is over.