Click charts to enlarge
Here's a graphic to go with our last post's sentiment about descending triangles. Since we made these images, MOS has broken down and LDK is very close to following it. Unfortunately, because these extremely bearish descending triangles exist in several sectors, it does not bode well for the overall near term health of the market.
The top chart is MOS, then GE, then LDK, then SID.
19 comments:
We added FXP back to our portfolio again after DDM dropped below the intraday moving average. We can't seem to hold a rally at all, and these descending triangles are breaking down. We're still more long than short, but if the broader market breaks its lows, we're going to reverse that entirely. The stars are aligned for a global crash. Perhaps we're one of the last stubborn longs left? We are certainly starting to feel alone in our short term bullishness.
hk22, in response to your comment in an earlier post, this market is just crazy. People can't decide which side of the trade to be on. The market is severely oversold short term, which would signal a buy. Yet, it's from oversold conditions that markets have their worst crashes, so people are naturally nervous. We can't seem to hold any rally for more than an hour or two, and many individual charts are breaking down.
As much as we'd love to go all long, we just can't seem to give up our FXP insurance. If world markets crash, it could reach 200 to 250 with ease, doubling even from these levels.
Given yesterday and today's action, we think the projected channel may fail, and we'll retest the lows at the very least. If we break them, well, we don't have to tell you how quickly this market can turn tragic.
Mos Broke down and market down...financial can not lead the market today so I think today is down day...
Bring it on biotches! Keep selling keep selling keep selling!! S&P below 700 today and 600 tomorrow and 500 Monday and 400 on Tuesday would be stellar. I've got buys in for SSO at 26,25,24,23,22,21,20 & 19 and I'll buy this bad boy all the way down to .14 cents I sh*t you not!
I'm hoping to see a crushing, jet airplane engine loud thundering selloff today touching off one last tsunami of margin call selling for tomorrow and into next week and let's all puke all over ourselves and convince ourselves that the world is ending and that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will be riding down our street looking to rid us of our pathetic canned goods and bottled water that we had to trade our first born for!!!
Yeee Haww! I'm riding this wave all the way down to Hades if I have to!
I set up to buy SSO at 23...
Been watching from the sidelines for the past couple of months. Unfortunately, started following the blog just as the ferts started to crumble. Boy, what a difference it would have made had I found this blog even one month earlier. I'm a builder in Michigan. Talk about being in a downtrending industry! Although the health of our local economy is tied tightly to the (at least for now) big three, I agree that one or more of them should be allowed to fail. I agree with about ninety percent of what is written by some informed, cool headed folks on this blog. What I find most refreshing is that Snot is brutally honest with his/her trades. I have learned more from the dissection of miscues than any thing else. As for hope for a turn-around soon, I don't think so. It must be getting pretty lonely being a long about now. Disclosure: Lately I'm trading exclusively in ETF's like QID very short term (1 to 4 days).
Sbbuilder,
Glad to have you here. This blog must have people from all walks of life on it. We have our hands in real estate and building as well, primarily residential. The past 7 years were great, but now the spec market is dead. There is no end to small additions and renovations, though. Makes no sense. All we can figure is that over the past 7 years, people couldn't get the local builders to do the small jobs, so they're getting around to them now. Where the money is coming from, we don't know.
We are brutally honest about our trades despite how tough it is to admit we succomb to fear and greed at times like most others. Buying FXP this morning at 130 and selling it at 125, only to buy it back again at 131 isn't the most sauve move, but these inflection points (bottom of range where it could break either way) are very stressful. Now that we have some FXP, we could just walk away and not worry about it. Without it, we aren't able to free up our day to do other things. Good luck with the building biz, hang in there, and don't forget to prime your endcuts:)
Snot,
I read this blog since you started it. I liquidated all my stocks today. I am down 50% this year. I am down because I bought and held. Obviously, this does not work in this market. I plan to not trade until the next bull, i.e, DJI above the 200dma and the 200dma trending up. I read Stan Weinstein's book recently. Good book.
All but one of these descending triangles have broken down, and the market has followed them to the downside. If the market closes below 8,917 (the low of 10-16), then our projected channel is off the table. We'll then have to focus on the imminent retest of Dow 7,882.
If you need a bright spot in this horrid market, GE's dividend yield is now at 1.24/18.11 = 6.85%, not too shabby. Nevertheless, it's a Stage 4 stock and is most likely headed even lower, along with MOS and LDK.
People are liquidating their stocks and mutual funds to get cash because their stocks and mutual funds have lost so much money. So there is a lot of forced selling, meaning that no matter how low the stocks go, they still go lower.
Jack, sorry to hear you were long this year. There's no harm in waiting for the next bull. This bear could still have many months left to run its course. Hopefully the election will help it stabilize by removing some uncertainty. It's so easy making money in a bull market that you'll feel like a stock market genius all over again. We hope everyone on this blog will work collectively to find the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors so we can all ride the next wave together. Until then, replace your lost capital, and enjoy your stress-free time on the sidelines.
The S&P is just 30 points above its 52 week low. Every chart that I've looked at over the past week has failed in its attempt to set a double bottom. The broader market should also fail to do so.
"Woulda coulda shoulda" It's humorous to me that people think the market "should" do anything except what it wants to do. Ya, the S&P is 30 points above it's low set 8 sessions ago. It also tested this same level 4 sessions ago. So is today a double bottom from 4 days ago or a triple bottom from 8 days ago? I'm skeptical you can make any kind of double or triple bottom call in such a small timeframe. A month from now the S&P chart will look like it went sideways these last 10 sessions, nothing more unless we get a 100 point slice to the downside.
I am rooting for a 100 point slice to the downside on the S&P 500. It does seem to attract buyers whenever it gets around the 860 area though. Even on the October 10 morning selloff it only stayed below 850 for about 14 seconds.
The Dow broke back above its intraday moving average, so we're out of FXP again. Lost 5 points on it, then made 3.5 points back. If this market ever stages a rally with legs, we want to ride it up without FXP. Wishful thinking maybe, but that's the idea.
At least I got one more buy of SSO filled at 25.88. Sure looked like it was going to head much lower. If things are so bad where is all this support coming from?
Nice buy price, pullo. The support could be coming from the government buying stocks in the open market. Google "PPT", or Plunge Protection Team.
They protect the market at major support levels.
Hi Snot,
What is take of the market today? Up the end of the day. Are you BULLISH now? Dow retest low today...gooooo SSO and DDM
Alot of manipulation at the end, maybe a few funds and the US Govt buying into the big-caps, NASQAQ still flat.
This was a horrible market today, the whip saw action shows investors and traders alike, this is a dangerous market, and if it is dangerous, then it is too risky and if too risky it is going lower.
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