Click chart to enlarge The chart above is a chart of the Nasdaq, but it may as well be any of the indexes. Today's action was just noise. The indexes are still within their ascending triangles. Nothing has broken down yet. It is no suprise that they are struggling in here considering that traders have two reasons to sell the rallies (50dma and horizontal resistance). We always like when triangles form because they force the market to chose a direction quickly. We expect a decisive move to take place very shortly, ending the respite from volatility we've had over the past month.
We hope that move is lower, as we'd like to get rid of QID and SMN and load up on the Ultralongs now that the market is trading more rationally. Unfortunately, the next move is likely to the upside. Ascending triangles have a tendency to break to the upside, and after all, the market is still very oversold on an intermediate term basis.
Purely from a technical standpoint, we're not suprised to see oil carving out new lows every day. That's what downtrending charts do, hence our call for 14 cent oil. From every other aspect, though, we are shocked to see how weak it is. Even the recent 1,000 point rally in the Dow has not given oil a breather. Despite how much it has fallen, we continue to warn that there is absolutely nothing redeeming about its chart. It remains in freefall, much to the relief of those who cannot heat purely with wood come January and February.
As for the other commodity related stocks, despite recent strength, they all remain in downtrends. This is the strongest they've been since breaking down in July/August, but they are by no means in an uptrend. If you pull up a weekly chart of any of the fertilizer stocks and put a 100dma on it, you'll see that they are nowhere near being in an uptrend. You need to see the big picture without getting caught up in the day-to-day noise in order to appreciate how little their recent strength means in the whole scheme of things.
82 comments:
Here is a weekly chart of POT with a 100dma on it. It's a log chart. It shows that the recent rally is just a return to the average within a much larger downtrend.
http://img32.picoodle.com/img/img32/3/12/18/f_potm_9766dab.jpg
Snot,
What software do you use for your charts?
j
Thanks Snot!
Snot,
Quote: "We hope that move is lower, as we'd like to get rid of QID and SMN and load up on the Ultralongs now that the market is trading more rationally." Please elaborate. If it moves lower, you take profit with QID and SMN, I get that part. But what's the basis for going ultralong at that point? Inquiring minds are asking.
Snot,
I think today is as good as it is going to get as far as selling point for QID and SMN. I may be a rookie, but the market is making much more sense following icons advice. We are probably going to bounce back tomorrow. If tomorrow breaks down, then the whole market tanks, possibly to new lows. I believe it will hold and go up from here as there is a pretty big support at this point!
j
btw, I do not support signing up for an ID. I prefer anon with my j at the end. I don't feel like logging in every time I want to post. Snot, you're the admin of this blog, just delete stupid posts.... thats all!
You said:
"I don't feel like logging in every time I want to post. Snot, you're the admin of this blog, just delete stupid posts.... thats all!"
First-
Once you logg in google keeps you logged in. You dont have to do it everytime you post.
sample:
"Choose an identity
Google/Blogger
You're currently posting as hk22
Use a different account"
Second-
You are too lazy to log in but Snot shouldn't be lazy to act as a police. Doesn't seem fare and make doesnt make sense all together. He already does enough on posting new threads. Even yahoo requires you to log in first.
Snot,
A question from an anonymous before the poll ends :) Today DXO was down 7% and DIG was down 11%. UNG was down a little over 1%. Why would DIG be down so much? DIG and DXO are 2x but why would oil and gas related stocks go down so much more? Lower oil shouldn't have an absolute 1 to 1 effect on these stocks. Some are more refiners and they work in relation to crack margins. Others are pumpers, drillers, pipe fitters, service companies, engineering firms, exploration companies, etc. etc.
Devblog,
Until the next bull market begins, we are holding onto the thesis that the market will be rangebound between 8k and 10k. Maybe between 7k and 11k. Either way, if it drops back to recent lows, we would feel totally comfortable putting another 30% of our accounts into the Ultralong ETF's, considering they will be somewhere near the bottom of this range.
It isn't until a new bull market begins (which could be years), before we will look to buy individual stocks for anything other than a fun trade.
j, we use TDameritrade's Strategy Desk software for charting.
Anon, people threw the baby out with the bathwater today. It's been a running theme lately. It isn't unusual to see stocks, commodities, precious metals and oil/gas all down in unison when deflation sets in. Values just deflate across the board.
Snot: I really appreciate your blog. Your post on the Nasdaq ascending triangle addresses my question from the 50dma post.
However, I do have a question. I see similar ascending triangles in the chart you posted at the end of Oct and July/Aug (although those don't coincide with the 50dma like now). In both of those cases they broke down at resistance. Am I seeing the chart right? If so, why do you bias that this time will be different and break upward?
TIA,
RL
Snot, in regard to your view that the market will stay range bound for some time and that a new bull market may be years away, that is what Carter Worth said recently in CNBC. I missed it but a friend gave me a quick summary. Worth presented charts of the market over the last 50 years and showed how the market went nowhere much from the late 1960s through 1982. He thinks that may happen again for several years. If so, swing trading with ultra indexes is about as safe as it will get. It doesn't matter too much whether it is QLD, DDM, SSO, MVV or a handful of others. I was lucky enough to sell UVG this morning before the dive. Should have sold another two ultra longs, but alas, I didn't and I took the hit. I bought back 1/3 of the UVG value in DIG when the market hit bottom for the day and I'll find out tomorrow if that buy was too soon. Oil may continue to tank and I may be sorry.
Snot,
Thnx, it's clearer. Pardon me for asking, but is there a way for readers to gain some insight into WHEN you actually decide to go long/short or do you prefer to keep things general?
RL,
We don't see the ascending triangle you're talking about at the end of Oct, but you can argue that there was one in July/Aug. The big difference between that one and the current one is that the current one has formed well below the averages. The 50dma is not so important. The 100dma is more significant, and the 200dma is the most significant of them all. In July/Aug, the market more or less returned to its 100dma after a steep drop in June and early July. The current market still remains oversold after the huge selloff we had in early Oct. We have yet to return to the 100dma, no less the 200dma. All of our buying of Ultralongs over the past several months is a bet on the indexes returning to the averages. If this ascending triangle had its top at the 100dma, we'd be hedging those longs significantly, or dropping the majority of them. If it had its top at the 200dma, we'd put 80% of our account into Ultrashorts and feel completely confident that we'd made a good move, ascending triangle or otherwise.
It's the oversold condition of the market that makes our bias bullish, not so much the short term triangle pattern.
Devblog, we always post here when we buy or sell, but remember, our goals may be very different than those of other investors. We have a longer time frame than many, as we trade in retirement accounts that have many decades to run. That's not to say that we'd hold anything for a decade, let alone a year, but we can go weeks without buying or selling.
Anon, Carter Worth, Louise Yamada and especially Art Cashin are among the best on CNBC. They have greater accuracy, in our opinion, than the fundamentalists. The call for a "rangebound" market is almost a no-brainer, as there is no new revolution to spark a new bull market, and anyone who wanted to sell in a panic has already done so. That only leaves one outcome... massive multi-year consolidation. Boring, but perhaps an improvement over the casino that was 2008.
Snot: I love your postings, but sometimes it is too extreme to be true. Theoretically, it is possible for all stocks to go down to 14 cents. But it is a little extreme for oil to be 14 cents a barrel, not before all alternative energy infrastructures in place. You would think that people have to be crazy enough to get oil out of ground for 14 cents. Since you admire Carter Worth and Louise Yamada, I would like to remind you that both of them like oil and oil stocks. H
Anon, we agree it's way too extreme for oil to drop that far. Oil and the indexes are immune from bankruptcy unlike individual stocks. Nevertheless, the safest mentality with which to view a downtrending chart is to tell yourself that it will bottom at 14 cents. That mentality saves you from buying oil when it was "cheap" at $60 a barrell. All we're saying is that traders/investors should wait for a chart to stabilize rather than trying to guess a bottom (catch a falling knife). There are no signs yet that oil is ready to bottom. Gulf's CEO is calling for $1 average at the pump in 2009.
The market is closing the week with no gains. That's pretty horrid for an options expiry week in december. Not to mention Bush's bailout announcement, which just happened to be perfectly timed for options expiration day.
With yesterday and today's action, we have completed stage 2 of the technical breakdown.
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/DJI-stage2.jpg
I pointed out on Dec 9th that we had completed stage 1, signalling the top of this "thanksgiving rally". That rally is still currently running fairly well, even though we are progressing through the 2nd stage of the breakdown. That is to be expected, as this analysis has proven to be a leading indicator during past rallies. So far the analysis is holding true. Historically speaking, the week after op-ex hasnt been very good, but we should get a rally on monday. If we fall on monday we proceed right into stage 3, and the target on the DOW becomes about 8230. I arrived at that target by connecting the two deepest troughs on the above chart, and extrapolating based on where the rsi intersects that line.
Since both DJI and XLF are both at support, I felt confident enough to buy FAS @ 22-23 (to be precise, when XLF is under 12.15). I will dump it if XLF falls under 11.95. My sell target for FAS is when XLF reaches 12.90.
Gary is up 3.4% compared to the S&P's loss of 9.0% since he began his portfolio 7 weeks ago.
In the same time period, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has lost 16.4%, Kirk Kerkorian's MGM has lost 21.8%, and Sheldon Adelson's LVS has lost 58%.
Over the past 7 weeks, your money would have been better off invested with a chimp than a pro.
And for those of you who find this offensive, we cannot apologize. Lies require apologies, truth does not.
Great Idea Snot.. Despite all the misgivings and arguments about microcaps versus large caps etc etc it mattered for nothing..
Out of curiosity, did any of the stock move out of the channel over the 7 weeks? Ie would a gary II capable of dumping a stock when it left its channel have done better or worse?
All of them were very choppy, and THS has been in downtrend for some time (at least under the 200SMA, and right below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern). EBS is the only one with clear uptrend and channel.
I think this idea is very exciting.
IMHO the next adjusment should be the composition of the portfolio and/or the timing, in a bear market we should be at _least_ 65% short (and 35% long maximum) with much more vulnerable stocks.
But it's very instructive in this way, too.
Btw what do you think about RIMM, how far can it goes? I bought some yesterday in the premarket (38,75), but I don't feel confident. :)
Snot,
I see what people mean about the Ultra ETFs eroding in value over time. I'm a big holder of SSO, and on 10/10/08 the S&P closed @899.22 and SSO closed @ $29.00. Fast forward to Thursday 12/17/08 and the S&P closed @ 904.42 yet SSO closed @$26.64. That's about $2.50 less per share only 10 weeks later at the same 900 level on the S&P. You must be experiencing the same thing with your DDM position.
My question is this: over the last 10 weeks did Proshares skim a whopping $2.50 off each and every share for their "administrational fee" or could some of this be attributed to different sectors strength/weakness changing over time skewing the price per share?
As always thanks, and I appreciate the blog!
Pullo,
Read posts 79, 80 and 81 by "dumb" Anon, that's me, under S&P 500 on this blog and the reason for the $2.50 decline in SSO is explained in mathematical detail with links provided for documentation. It is simply a matter of mathematical percentages working on the volatility.
Thanks Ben, I think you hit on a very interesting and much more profitable strategy with the Ultra ETFs.
According to the article by McHugh I've been going about this all wrong. If I plan on shorting the S&P500 when it hits it's 100dma (assuming it gets there) I'd be better off selling SSO short than buying SDS long, correct?
That looks like the only way to truly achieve the 2X ratio, and actually you'd probably exceed that ratio with this strategy. (Assuming the guy who wrote the article is correct). And it looks like it he is if you look at SSO vs. SDS from 10/1/08 through 12/19/08:
If you bought SDS long on 10/1 you bought at $69.77 and today it's $85.40 = a +22.4% gain.
But if you sold SSO short on 10/1 you sold at $49.25 and today it's $25.47 = a +93.36% gain.
That'a a hell of a difference for doing the exact same trade.
SNOT- wouldn't it be more profitable for you to sell DDM short when the DOW hits it's 100dma (if your account gets set up that way in time) instead of buying DXD long?
Very interesting indeed. Shorting an Ultra looks like the one and only direction where you can make the mathematical decline of share price work in your favor. Kind of ramps it up to 2.5X!
Any thoughts? Am I missing something? The more I think about this the more it seems like you could kick some ass in any sort of sideways market and really clean up in a pullback!
Looks like currently there are about 2M shares short of SSO (131M total float) so a few people have thought of this already...but not many. Yet.
Everytime I wanted to short the Ultra ETFs my E-TRADE acount said that there were no shares available for shorting...Other people also had this problem!!
All the EFT will make this market go one way UP or DOWN. But I think one day, all the EFT will bring this market down bigtime. Just like Hedge fund did for the last 3 months. all ETF is scam...
Credit Suisse, from now on my favorite bank:
<<< Credit Suisse bankers are getting toxic bonuses >>>
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/18/business/suisse.php
Enjoy!
newfrankyboy
Can the market stay in the triangle for the rest of the year? It seems a break up or down is imminent.
The triangle will break out to the top side. Remember, it is christmas next week. WS doesn't have the balls to crash the market right before the christmas. I wouldn't want to be center of attention at the christmas table.
Either sideways movement, or we break out!
j
rsi resistance line for RIMM is at 45.20, which coincides perfectly with the 50 sma. That makes it highly likely that RIMM will bounce downwards pretty hard once it hits 45.20. Sounds like a great short opportunity.
AOB breaking resistance since last post.
thebat
Iconoclast421: thanx, but I stopped out. Btw +9,5% is in the pocket for one trading day (scalp). In this market this is the best what I can do, the scalping. :D
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/investing/10454470.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
Another "expert" who suggests that the indexes will stay in a trading range for some time to come, even though he thinks we have seen the bottom.
I'll take the 15% upside from here in the trading range that Kass mentioned in his article today. That would put the S&P500 right at 1,000. Then short it right back down to 750. Sounds like a plan.
Can we say the triangle has been broke down?
What a depressing market.
Oh yeah, and then some. FXI and IYR look really bad. XLF just broke down, and stopped me out. Small caps are taking a beating. The DOW is apparently being held up with duct tape. Wouldnt it be funny if it closed at 8230?
Cramer was just pumping China a few minutes ago saying what a great buy he thinks it is right here so FXP is probably money in the bank.
Those that got stopped out, too bad. Market will be up tomorrow!
Yeah i think it will be up tomorrow too. Indexes rallied back to support. More importantly, IYR came back and magically closed high enough to avoid breaking support. It's uptrend and channel are still intact. FXI is hosed though. It is in the process of forming a downtrending support line. FXP and SRS are both looking like good medium term plays. (4-6 weeks). I am waiting and hoping for IYR to get back to 40 before buying SRS. I'll start accumulating FXP when FXI gets up to 30.50
I set my stop at 12.74 for LDK. It was close, but it never hit.
j
Pre market DXD is down -23.36% but DDM is up only a measly +1.39%...what the heck is going on? I'm starting to agree that the ultra's are a scam.
Does anyone know why DXD, SDS and QID are down so huge compared to their inverse counterparts?
They declared distributions. Obviously there was a lot of action this quarter!
I told you all ETF are scam . Look at SMN = -27
Here's a link to the ProShares Distributions that were ex-date 12/23/08:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081222/20081222005889.html?.v=1
RL
Thanks Icon, that makes sense. I didn't realize that some ETFs actually pay a distribution.
And SRS might be a good call. Looks like it might drop below 50 if IYR @40 is the target price to pull the trigger on SRS. Looking at the chart of SRS it would be hard to imagine you'd lose money @50 if you had a few months timeframe.
Happy Holidays to all, and if you're not listening to Alvin & The Chipmunks Christmas Album today I highly recommend it!
Today's posts are too funny. Brings back to my memory the first time as a newbie investor that I had a mutual fund declare a year end distribution. The market was flat and my portfolio appeared to be down about 6%. I panicked and called a broker friend who only laughed and said, "Distributions. You'll be even money in 24 hours when the books are settled for the day." On ETFs, though, even money might not come for 2 to 4 weeks. I remember about a 25% distribution on CHN a few years ago which wasn't paid until January 31st. I got my money back but somebody else had it for a month. You've got to watch out for tax implications on distributions. Otherwise, they aren't really a problem. But ETFs a scam? LOL. No more so than mutual funds or a variety of other investments.
Anyone loading up on LDK at 12.90?
Poly news could come out at any minute!
j
Testing supports, or are we ready to tank?
j
I'm seeing the same support line for LDK that I've been seeing. It is an uptrending line, but the price is still right around $12.
IYR has broken down now, and the PPT isnt going to hold it up. I'm not waiting anymore to start accumulating SRS.
Where is Snot? Is he still bullish or bearish? DOW, S&P, NDAQ all broken support for uptrend. DOWN BIG from here. Hopeless!
I upset for the wrong direction, too bad.
Yeah, almost each time, the worst leader ! hahaha !
I've got 3 very important charts.
The first one illustrates my basic rules for establishing buy and sell signals:
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/SPX-dec-08.jpg
I've got 5 sells in a row, all generated in the last 11 trading sessions. This is the worst I've ever seen.
The next chart highlights the conditions which indicate a top has formed:
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/rsiresistancebearishtopsignal.jpg
This is an extremely bearish signal that is equal to at least 3 sell signals.
Finally, by analyzing the slope of the secant lines formed by breakpoints of rsi support lines, I get another bearish signal that also indicates a top has been passed:
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/rsisupportlinesecants.jpg
When we pass the top, the slope of the secant line turns downwards.
I'm not saying the market is going to crash tomorrow, it is just unimaginable that it could happen on Christmas eve. But I've already started a short position and feel confident about averaging down into that position on any rally. It is clear to me that the market wants to go down. I feel that only massive intervention will prop it up.
Icon, I'd be careful reading too much into this and next week's "action". Light volume with nobody around causing the market to gradually drift down like a snowflake doesn't a trend make.
didn't take my whole "name" up there on the first try!
Good analysis Icon. Everything makes sense, but this time I'm not sure if we can consider this as another regular trading day. We've been having crazy low volumes this week. People are on vacation. This is a PERFECT time for MM's to bring down the market really slowly and take out a whole bunch of stops. I can tell there is a massive resistance at this point. I'm not sure what will happen next week. We either break it, or rally back up!
Traditionally January is a good month for equti market but next year might be different. Let alone facing doom economies, we might see exodus from hedge funds. Madoff scandal surfaced after December deadline of hedge regulations to take out funds and real effect will be seen from coming January. It might drag entire finantial sector even further...
JK
This market can not rally without OIL is going back up!
Looks like we are not going to make it to the 200DMA or 100DMA target for SPX.
Im selling my long position starting today.
Also look at Shanghaicomp index:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SSEC
Another important chart is VIX
I will be 100 %short when VIX hits 35.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?vix
I dunno Hk22,
Your assuming that because the volatility has lightened up then it may bounce off 35 and rise again. Volatility was at record levels as a result of the deleveraging and hedge funds unwinding (or panic dumping) positions.
I think it is likely that this period is finished with as anyone who needs to deleverage will have done so already. If this is the case then there is no reaosn to think that the VIX will go back up to he levels it has hit before.
People with money left who wish to take up a position will probably scale in slowly and this woudl lead to gradual rise the the markets while the VIX gradually reduces back to normal levels...
One scenario anyway..
I got a bit of USO in premarket today at 27.62. I found that USO is the most liquid pre-market stock, at least for today ... suits my trade timing. Oil at 150 this summer was crazy, now at below 40 it is crazy too.
I tend to agree with Conor re. market drifting up/back to normal volatility. It is not going up yet since everybody is expecting a "santa's rally". When everybody expects it, it does not happen. Nobody expected the "Obama rally" that is why it happened. The name was coined after the fact.
I also have a bit of LDK I got at 13, and some "boring" stock called GE.
Any comment on UUP? It is the dollar index. Looks like the dollar is having trouble going above the 10-day moving average. I think it will go test support at 24 again, fail and then drop down. That should help oil and solar companies that export to Europe.
Conorsh, I agree with you on VIX. Only some new crisis will cause it to skyrocket again. Let's hope we don't have one. For those playing mostly long in trend/channel trading Snot style who prefer the ultra indexes, instead of DDM, QLD and SSO, may I recommend the following four (not horsemen): UGE, RXL, LTL, and DIG. They are sector ultra ETFs which are all sectors of things people will keep spending their money on even in a recession: consumer staples, health care, telecommunications, and oil/gas. Oil should be around a bottom somewhere here. On LTL and UGE, don't use market orders or stops. Probably not even for RXL, even though it isn't as low a volume as the other two. A couple of trading days ago, my LTL sold at the open at the ceiling computer-set price from the end of the previous day -- $28.93. Someone dumped a market order at the open and it gobbled up a bunch of shares at the max price -- 12% above the previous day's close. Within minutes the share prices were back down to $26 or less and I was able to buy them back. LTL opened up today about 7% or 8% above the Xmas eve close, but I didn't have a sell order ready for that one. Rats.
Good luck to all in your trades and investments.
icon -- you give great TA, thanks! i see you're using stockcharts.com and i was wondering: does their service include your beautiful support lines and secants? or is that part of their premium service? it's really very nice.....
Was on vacation for a week, but back in the saddle now. This market is not encouraging, but it hasn't broken down yet, either.
Wall Street, like us, has been on vacation, and probably still is. We're not expecting anything exciting to happen until the New Year.
Snot
Welcome back. What is your take on buying real-estate in the next six months or year? I'm thinking about buying undeveloped acreage and holding it for the long term. My thinking is that this is one of the last tangible assets that folks will be willing to give up, and therefore could be purchased at fire sale prices. As the saying goes 'they aren't making any more of it'. Do you act as proxy in real estate dealings?
I'm currently holding QID purchased at 72. It's about break even factoring in the dividend that should be payed out tomorrow. I've held it now for about 2 1/2 weeks, and plan on holding for another couple weeks. Given all the discussion about the inverse Ultras' slowly losing value relative to the indexes, what do you think?
You know nothing about the market, shame !!!!!!!
Here's a perfect example of why we need to weed out the anon's. Hit and run gibberish.
DOW is on sale today because of the Kuwait deal news. Anyone daring to tip toe in?
Dear sbbuilder, what if the vacuum-headed remark by anonymous to your reasonable post about real estate had been made by someone with a handle. What difference would it make? The handles are made-up names. You don't have a clue who someone is. No one knows who Snot is. Snot claimed to run a hedge fund at one time and then some other claim and then to be in real estate and to manage some investments for a few friends in a retirement account. What matters is whether or not someone says something logical or someone can document something with hard factual information. Furthermore, people can multiply handles just like IBCNU handles were cloned ad nauseum. Whomever it was is not worth the trouble of a response. Ignore him.
On the anonymous versus handle type postings, I have a question for the users who may be more tech savy than me. I have a Google email account, but I don't want to log in and post on this blog under that account because I have my own blog based on that email account and my identity is not anonymous there. (It is not a financial blog.) I don't want to have to create another Google email with a handle to log in here to post something and to always have to be checking to see what name I am logged in under and to have to be switching back and forth several times a week. I made that mistake once in a Yahoo message board of posting a message while logged in under the wrong account name. As all of you know, if you dare to post a message in a Yahoo board, your email address is exposed to the world and the SPAM floods in. Because of that nuisance, I quit posting on Yahoo message boards, so that I could stay logged into my chief Yahoo email account without worry.
sbbuilder,
Do you know Snot used many different ID/Names on this blog ?
Anon's et all
I don't use a google id. I just go to the end of the comment section and select Name/URL and then type in my handle. So long as there is a some way of following a poster's remarks, I'm fine with that. Some people sign with a single initial, and that's fine too.
Anon from 1:41 pm:
You are correct in saying that handles can be created ad nauseum. However, if you see it from the other end, don't you tend to follow with more interest folks like Icon or hk22 or bigboy. I don't think anybody wants to really know who you are, and anonymity in this day and age is important to say the least. Those of us who post some sort of handle know that for good or ill, we are inviting criticism. You have to have a thick skin at times to (rightly) ignore those who post blather.
Dear sbbuilder,
That makes sense. I'll just start posting my name at the end (unless I need to do more to conform).
Joe
We need volatility!
This lack of volatility is making market hard to predict.
Come on VIX!
I'm staying out of the market, until things start making sense. Things are too unpredictable at the moment!
j
I may be wrong here but if Snot can block the same I.P. address from voting twice he can probably block any I.P. address from posting comments if they are deemed innappropriate or offensive. If they have to use some sort of "official" I.D. that is.
I would welcome that because one or two Anonymous posters on here have become increasingly insulting/criticizing/fantasy trade posting and it's gotten annoying and out of hand.
Sure, make a bunch of I.D.s but you only have one I.P. address. And then if you go to another location and get cute that I.P. can be blocked as well. And unless you're a meth addict like IBCNU you'll give up and move on sooner or later.
Although I must admit making up different names every time you post can be kind of fun! Too bad a few bad apples have to spoil it for everyone else.
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