Monday, January 5, 2009

Cox

The rare image shown above is a photo of S.E.C. chairman Christopher Cox on Capital Hill explaining how the biggest pyramid scheme in history slipped through the cracks. Cox explained that the specific type of pyramid scheme run by Madoff was not covered in his text, "Pyramids for Dummies". His explanation had the crowd convinced that the S.E.C. is not at fault. In a press conference that followed the hearing, Bush commented that despite numerous letters outlining Madoff's scheme, the S.E.C. is only responsible for frauds covered by Federally issued manuals.
We obtained a copy of "Pyramids for Dummies", and found that Cox was entirely correct. The book primarily focused on pyramids built between 2,500 to 2,800 B.C. in Giza, but mentioned nothing about Wall Street. Bush further commented that when Cox is replaced, his successor has already been decided. Sponge Bob Square Pants will take over the S.E.C. when Cox steps down. This will likely not happen, commented Bush, until the prostitute he hired... Bush was muffled by his lawyer at this point who explained that Cox had hired a Protestant to help him understand the differences in religious beliefs over State lines. Money recovered from the Madoff scandal went to pay for the Protestant, so no tax dollars were lost, commented Bush's attorney.
In other news, 74 pound Apple CEO, Steve Jobs announced that his weight loss is due to a hormonal imbalance, not pancreatic cancer. The resulting rally, which has yet to take AAPL through resistance, provides an entry point for shorts looking to capitalize on the recent distribution of the shares. As expected, the market has hit resistance at Dow 9000. Our guess is that the rally continues after a short breather, as the indexes are still grossly oversold.

94 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good stuff. Are you planning an April 1st column yet?

Joe

Snotwheel said...

What is an April 1st column? Isn't that a speech/debate term?

Snotwheel said...

Madoff was caught distributing valuables (jewels) to his family members. Prosecutors said that this proves that he cannot be trusted to remain under house arrest. Correct us if we're way off base here, but wouldn't stealing $50 billion from the American public constitute a violation of trust?
In the 1950's it would have been, but apparantly today it's not enough of a reason to cause concern about one's morality.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of violation of trust LDK has just issued new guidance. 23% down on last months "read my lips" promise that business was just fine. The big problem that company has always had was the fact that the investment community just dosent believe a word they say. They seem to have gone some distance to proving them right today..
Its a bad sign.

Snotwheel said...

Conor, we have several Chinese Americans here in our office, and when we purchased LDK many moons ago (pre-Situ), one of them told us that we were crazy. They insisted that business in China followed no rules. We never forgot that warning considering it came from someone who should have been supportive of his native people. If your LDK investment doesn't pan out, a few pints of Guinness should heal the wound.
Tiocfaidh ar la!

Anonymous said...

Anyone think LDK will hit 9 again? Glad I sold off last Friday. What do you guys think?

j

Anonymous said...

Lol, Tiocfaidh ar la indeed.
The sooner the better..

Your right of course, business there is all about taking route 1 to the finish, regardless of whats in the way. Its why guys in thier 20's can build multi millon dollar fortunes out of nothing (i know a few of them and its fascinating to hear thier stories). That said, i dont think the chinese companies are Madoff style fakes either. At least they are trying to build a business rather than blatently scamming!

Anonymous said...

What is an April 1st column? An April fools column, of course. One of my favorite sports web sites always does a string of bogus stories on April 1st. Year after year they get better and better at doing them, so that sometimes I'm into the 3rd or 4th story before I go, "Well, duh. This must be April fool's day. Hello! I was a blond when I was a kid, so that probably explains why I didn't catch on already." And for the origin of the dumb blond attribution, check out this You Tube video. This may be where it all got started. :) What a laugh!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_cHg6ZAOTU

LDK. Ouch. Sure am glad I sold that of long ago. I went to the LDK board and the frustrated longs are in denial once again.

Joe

Iconoclast421 said...

Apparently the market believes that STP is worth 30% more than LDK. I cant see that myself. LDK is going to have better earnings than STP for 2009. 23% is pretty good given the state of the market. Most companies would gladly take that haircut.

When LDK opens tomorrow, it looks like it will be sitting on a strong support line. The same one I've mentioned many times previously. Either the sector lifts it back up, or the whole sector implodes. I would feel comfortable buying LDK at around 12.20. I havent done any buying lately of LDK at that support, but I would have if I didnt have other plans.

I'm continuing to watch FXI for guidance. When it hits the top of its channel, it will also hit an uptrending rsi resistance line. That will be my signal to buy FXP. It looks like the solar sector could top out at around that time also. The solar rally is going to end within 3 weeks. Whatever solars I do end up buying will be sold the day before inauguration, at the latest. That is two weeks. Until then I'm putting my stamp of approval on LDK. But I will not hold (or average down) if it breaks its support.

Keep in mind that LDK is only up 50% from its Nov low. Many solars have tripled, and none of them are immune to any issues LDK might face, aside from some kind of gross problem with the poly plant.

In case you're wondering, the reason some of those others have tripled is due to easing of credit concerns which were pretty serious a couple months ago. Especially for YGE, SOL, and CSUN. LDK didnt have those problems so it didnt fall as hard, and now its not rallying as hard either.

Anonymous said...

I agree, it is wild west out there, but then again, it is not like business here follow any rules, compare to lies being told by firms on wall street, LDK's is kid stuff

**They insisted that business in China followed no rules.**

Anonymous said...

WLT is up another 12% today (IT'S UP 42% IN THREE DAYS) dow is only up 1%, Why don't buy single stock on this market ? yeah ! He has no ability to find good stocks, however, he is still proud of myself.

Anonymous said...

CORRECTION:

"he is still proud of myself."

"he is still proud of himself."

Iconoclast421 said...

GLD is back at weak support. I'm adding more DGP.

What's amazing about this sucker's rally is that real estate is taking a beating despite it.

Anonymous said...

Some things I've learned from Snot:

1. If you aren't a day trader, don't worry about day traders bragging about scalps from daily fluctuations. Let them brag. Good for them. What they probably aren't telling you about are the losses from the surprise opening gap downs.
2. Always keep some dry powder. Always keep some money in the market. That way you won't miss a buying opportunity, on the one hand, or a rally, on the other hand.
3. Don't fight the market. Go with the overall trends (read the charts).
4. Be patient.
5. Layer in and out, because catching a top or bottom is rare.
6. Increase your probabilities by buying near the bottom of the channel and selling near the top of the channel. it is all probabilities, not certainties. If you can win 2 out of 3, you will come out ahead.
7. If people want to come into your blog and piss everywhere, let them. It is a reflection on their immaturity, not yours.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Joe,

Your article is toilet issue, because your opinion without any evidence( or example )

Anonymous said...

Snot has been giving evidence of his trading method for many months now. Whatever. OK. Here are a couple of my recent purchases (yesterday and last week) with charts:

DOW DOW bought at the bottom of the channel as stoichastics have given a buy signal. News (Kuwait and DOW's purchase of another company) may affect stock price and make the buy a bad one, but the probability is that it will move in the direction of its moving averages. Bought yesterday. Currently up 5.4%.

AIG AIG purchased in layers several days ago as already mentioned on this blog, so that you know I'm not making a fake claim here. I'm currently up 6.6%. Purchased at the bottom of the channel according to the full stochastics located at the bottom of the chart in the accompanying link. A longer term chart will show a little better channel on the RSI chart. Mostly I trade in index and sector ETFs, as per Snot's advice, so these are small positions in my portfolio.

Now, time will tell if those were two good choices or not. For my third bit of evidence regarding things I've learned from Snot, I refer to the last item in my list. Let some people carry on the way you do in a blog, because it isn't a reflection on anyone else but the poster. Why don't you try to contribute something worthwhile instead of just trashing others? If you don't like Snot's blog and his advice, leave.

For those interested, tomorrow is ex-dividend day for T and VZ. Both are down significantly due to an analyst downgrade a day or two ago. Downgrade was based mostly on saturation of market. Dividend is about 1.5%. Everyone do your own DD.

Hope everyone has a profitable trading day, including Snot fans and Snot bashers.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Folks, for any of you LDK traders out there it has just made a 20% jump on 5x normal volume.. Unusual, even for LDK.

Anonymous said...

Joe, dont get dragged into a discussion there. The guy isnt looking for reasonable discussion, he is just looking to be disruptive. If no one responds he will eventually get bored.
Snot, i think its time to block anons... for the moment at least..

Also, just an observation, but the layering in concept is supposed to be applied over a period of weeks or even months. Layering in over a few days doesent really give the covering effect that it should as it is too short a timescale to cover the stock making a move in a direction you had not predicted.. EG aig has been creeping up for a while now but in a few weeks it coudl easily give up the gains and decrease more. Layering in allows you to buy lower if this happens (with the second, third, fourth layer) but also benefit from the ride up if it dosent happen (Ie benefit from your first layer)

Anonymous said...

Thanks Conor,

I know he/she isn't looking for a rational discussion, but it is fun to play with them anyway, posting sound reason side-by-side with their dribble. As for layering in and out, I mostly trade index and sector ETFs and there is an up and down $2 or $3 per share available there in them every couple of weeks. I'm not day trading very often, but I'm working on a shorter time frame than Snot. And that time frame can sometimes be shortened with the low volume ETFs with low-ball opening purchases and high-ball opening sells.

chart for LTL

As for AIG, I will probably buy more if it keeps going up. Have a good one.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Is it safe to come out yet? I've been hiding out in a bunker with some Isr..., er, some other posters while the comments flew back and forth the past few days. Hope thats all behind us. Insh'allah.

Now I'm seriously upside-down on my QID trade, about 17%. Options here are to 1) stay the course, 2)cut and run, or 3) lean into it and buy some more. I'm actually thinking of 3)layering in.

Why I'm less sanguine about the economic stimulus than others: The money being floated around the world has one thing in common, that is, it is all borrowed. Who's gonna pay the bill when it comes due? Our government didn't loose any money, like countless investors did; they may actually come out ahead in terms of purchasing equity in our homes. (Boy, I like the idea of the gov. holding the note on my house...) Jack and Jill are in for a rough ride.

Anonymous said...

LDK tested the flat 20-day moving average at 13.11 in the morning, was able to stay above it. Then tested the 50-day at 14.67 on high volume in the after noon. This level was tested twice and held.

The 100-day is at 25 ... too far away to worry now. I think the next real resistance will be around 20.

Appreciate criticism on my thoughts. I have some money in LDK now.

Anonymous said...

By the way, I would like to thank those (Builder and Snot amongst others) who warned about AAPL. I listened and sold at a level higher than where it is now.

Anonymous said...

Joe and conor:

I am laughing, please respect the fact.
may I ask you a question? Why did you buy single stock? my above posting is against Snot's opinion:" don't buy single stock in bear market"( I partialy agree his opinion before dow hit 7500). Your action have already proved-- we stand the same line ( buy single stock in bear market),however, why did you rebut my posting ? Is your logic bad ? or you want to become other Snots' dog !

I have received many email from the posters on the blog. They thought something was wrong about Snot, however, they have never pointed out the mistake on the blog. I really understand them, ( that's why I pointed out before: to all posters ....please answer my questions in your mind ) but I really don't understand you, Joe and conor. Again, please respect the fact. Who made money ? Who lost money recently ?

Btw I bought LDK last night (in AH ) because Snot beared the stock.( sorry an anti-Chinese stocks "expert", many people knew this on Yahoo message board) I think LDK will take off in near term.

lightsource, if you don't mind i want to say:" don't post so many postings here, someone is a racial discriminative person, if he don't like you, he will ask his partner to insult you in future." you will find my email address on WLTs' message board.(yahoo)

Anonymous said...

Beatsnot, my single stocks are very small positions. Check my previous posts where I said AIG is 2% or 3% or my portfolio. DOW is the same. Sector and index ETFs are 60% to 80% as it fluctuates. The rest is cash. My biggest money maker today was LTL which I bought sub-$28 yesterday after having sold off last Thursday and Friday. If you prefer to day trade and have the time for it and if you prefer single equities, you ought to check it out LTL. The fluctuations can be marvelous. And since it is an ETF, if you get caught on the wrong side, you may feel more comfortable holding it overnight, especially since everybody will probably keep their telephones longer than other things that would fit more neatly into discretionary income.

LTL 5 day chart

As for single stocks in a bear market, Snot talked me into selling CROX when it was $10. I thought surely that it had hit bottom when it dropped from $70 or so to about $7 and then climbed back up to $10. Snot said, "No. No. No. Stage 4. It is going to zero." I sold the next day. Two days later CROX resumed its descent dramatically. That was back in July or so. Close call. Whew!

It is my observation that those who don't understand Snot's advice are either (1) those who have a day trading time frame (which is fine; it just isn't Snot's method, since he doesn't want to sit in front of the screen all day) or (2) they do not understand the concept of hedging (a relative of mine who is a manager in a hedge fund says they are typically about 30% short [hedged] all of the time). Those who lost money on FXP appeared to me to be attempting to trade it, not understanding that Snot was using a teeny bit of it as a hedge. If you care to disagree with Snot and if you act like a gentleman, he will respond in kind. I disagreed with him weeks ago that all stocks weren't worth 14 cents. When he explained that this was hyperbole to force oneself to stay away from a falling knife, I realized it was a semantic difference and no more and that was the end of the discussion.

You may now resume your laughing. I must get back to work. Hope everyone has a profitable day tomorrow.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Joe.

You said:"

7. If people want to come into your blog and piss everywhere, let them. It is a reflection on their immaturity, not yours."

let me rebut you:

for me, this blog is like the farm 200 years ago. I am like a slave. I support the blog very hard, but Snot always ask his partner to insult me many many times. did you see it ? did you blame him at that time? of course Snot has never insulted you. so you have no the feeling like me.

You really don't know who they are sometimes, so please respect other people at the begining, then they will respect you !!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Beatsnot said
"Btw I bought LDK last night (in AH )"

Total Bollox. You bought LDK a year ago at $70...

Anonymous said...

Beatsnot, you think Snot is asking somebody else on this blog to insult somebody else on this blog? Don't you realize that he is busy working for a living selling real estate and he doesn't have time to waste on such drivel? Most other people on here are probably busy working for a living too. I'm busy working and with a new shift starting tomorrow and vacation being over, I won't be lurking here as much so you won't see my name around as much either. Probably nobody here knows who anybody else is and nobody really cares. People with low self-esteem use their anonymity to take pot shots at others. What they may have said to insult you has more to do with who they are than who you are because they don't know you, so forget about it and look for decent stock advice and don't piss on anybody.

DOW was doing well today after the CEO tried to say the Rohm Hass purchase would go through even though the Kuwait deal fell through. It could all backfire and my DOW trade could go up in smoke. I'll take a quick profit on it if I can and keep a stop in place in case it goes bad. Here is a link to the first part of the article in WSJ. The whole article is interesting.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123124509659757143.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

If you have invested in QSII or some other Obama-medical type plays and are wondering why they have turned around in the last 48 hours, this link will explain. The Obama effect on them may not take effect until near the end of 2009, so some traders started taking profits and going elsewhere. RXL was down today while most sector ETFs were up. I bought into RXL again today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090106/health_care_it_sector_snap.html?.v=1

What about Obama's new stimulus he is pushing so hard? Who thinks it will get through to his desk his first week in office and what effect will it have on the market?

Joe

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
conorsh, why don't you impress us all and just disappear. you are like that little piece of manure floating in a bucket of fresh cow milk.
December 18, 2008 6:31 AM "

Iconoclast421 said...

I seriously would just ignore beatsnot, its just nonsensical babble. It reads like cointelpro. It is possible to delete posts on an individual basis, and I would recommend doing that.

Hey Joe, I forgot that you could do that here. Pretty cool

For those that dont know, here is how you do it. Just remove all the asterisks from the following text, and it becomes a link:

<*A HR*EF="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31600454804"> Pretty cool <*/A*>

Change the link by changing what's in the quotes. Change the label by changing the "Pretty cool" to whatever you want.

Iconoclast421 said...

sbbuilder, the NASDAQ is trading in a channel, and right now it is near the top of its channel. (1700 is the very top.) Buying QID seems like a no brainer at this point. However, I'm sure Snot remembers that in 2001, the DOW went down to 8200 only to rally 2500 points in 6 months. This was partly due to Bush's failed stimulus plan #1. Like all stimulus, the money invariably goes to wall street to maintain an unsustainable bubble.

If Obomba drops a $800 billion stimulus bomb, wall street will explode. But right now the S&P should be under 500 based on basic fundamentals (PE of 12-14). The only thing holding it up is the aura of stimulus. So anything higher than the 200dma is simply not possible. It is already largely priced in. But the stimulus crack frenzy will probably take the market to the 200dma. Until we get there, QID has to be channel traded to cancel out the losses. My own plan is to hold onto a set number of shares, and then trade an additional amount to continually reduce my basis cost. I'm not going with QID, but it should be even easier to do with QID. (I'm trading SRS.)

Anonymous said...

Beatsnot,

i know you are really pissed... i feel the insult Snot made to you...

Anonymous said...

See? Since you guys are ignoring BeatenBySnot he has started writing posts to himself!

Like we don't recognize the improper syntax that he uses. Funny.

Hope this mean that he will soon be picking up his marbles in a huff and going to play somewhere else.

Anonymous said...

Blind Anon said:

"See? Since you guys are ignoring BeatenBySnot he has started writing posts to himself!

Like we don't recognize the improper syntax that he uses. Funny.

Hope this mean that he will soon be picking up his marbles in a huff and going to play somewhere else"

---------

Did I write "i" instead of "I " on any postings ? "Good" logic !!!

Anonymous said...

Blind anon,

you reminded me to post the example like you said as follows:

----------------------------------
Sick Of The Me No Speakee The English Anons said...
Damn Me-No-Speakee-Anon your first two "reasons" are gibberish to those of us that know how to speak the English language, the third is a compliment and your 4th is ridiculous. I was looking at DRYS at 16 and posted a question to Snot and he said don't bother it's still going lower.

Next Me-No-Speakee-Anon you're going to tell us that YOU bought DRYS right at 3.04 and hung on until today and sold at 12.77, right?

LOLOLOL!!! Quit showing the rest of the world how ignorant and angry you are. You belong on the LDK Yahoo message board.
January 2, 2009 1:24 PM
-----------------------------------

Snotwheel said...
Thanks Sick Of The Me No Speakee The English Anons for saying what we thought when we read that post!
I'm sure all of the Anons caught the very bottom of DRYS and JRCC and have quadrupled their portfolios over the past few weeks. At this rate, they'll be the first to have $100B accounts, and will do it by 2011!
January 2, 2009 2:15 PM

----------------------------

If someone needs more example, I will provide it.

To all posters:

This blog is like the paid basher group. becareful !!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Yesterday's news concerning the auto's (this time the Japanese) confirmed my suspicions back in Nov/Dec. Back then everybody was arguing that since the fleet MPG for the domestics was obviously so rotten, nobody was buying them. Well, it turns out that Toyota and Honda had worse results than the domestics! Their Dec. YOY sales fell more than all domestic autos. Toyota announced plant closings for, I believe, 17 days - an unprecedented event. The idea that raising the MPG significantly will bring flocks of people to dealerships is already passe. How quickly 'pile on' analysis goes away.

I went ahead and bought some more QID this am. I hope this pans out better than my last trade.

devblog said...

beatsnot: I have no personal communication with snotwheel so my comments are strictly my own. What is your objective here? If you truly wanted to be constructive and point out flaws in snot's logic or calculations, that could have been done so in a civil and polite fashion. Reasonable men can agree to disagree. Who knows, you might have even succeeded to sway his or others minds if your arguments were convincing enough. However, your very aggressive and combative stance, coupled with what you should agree are relatively poor English skills have not engendered respect, but rather disdain. So your arguments tend to be completely lost within the ridicule that is directed towards you by the readers of the blog. I would simply encourage you to reconsider your approach. Again, it's snot's blog, you are free to come and go, but in order to be effective, you need to be able to command respect. I fear that you have lost the collective respect of this group.

Anonymous said...

seriously guys, stop responding to this idiot. We are just continuing the conversation unnecessarily. NO more response period!

Anonymous said...

devblog,

The owner said the following words or sentences in a “ civil and polite" fashion:

1. Small Boy

2. mediumboy

3. tinyboy

4. TeenyTinyWeenyBoy

5. his trades just like Madoff

6. Sick Of The Me No Speakee The English Anons

7. Go Away Broken English Sidelines Reporter Wannabe Anons

8. Poor Sad Little Microscopic Weenie Boy Anon Is Comically Angry

9. Awwww, Little Penis Boy Who No Speakee The English Is Mad Now

10. LittlePenisBoy8882008

And more………………….

How do you think about the above words and sentences?

Anonymous said...

devblog,

please answer my question ? otherwise, you are a hypocrite !!!!!!

devblog said...

beatsnot, I truly think you brought it upon yourself. I believe that snot was quoting others. I really think that if you have something constructive to say you should focus on doing so, otherwise don't focus your energies on negative activity. Life is really too short for such nonsense. I also don't believe this is the right forum for you, especially because of all the negative feelings that have been generated. My suggestion is that you forget about it, move on to a different blog and live a happy life.

Anonymous said...

How did you guy do today? I started to buy some FXP yesterday but got chicken-livered and didn't. Great 20-20 hindsight as usual. Is this the beginning of another leg down or just profit taking and consolidation on the horrid news?

Did any of you guys watch the dumb blond video on You Tube I linked the other day?

You Tube dumb blond video - LOL - ROTFLMAO

Joe

agd21 said...

Interesting article on trader psychology – humans are wired to create bubbles.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/financial-bubbles

Iconoclast421 said...

I had a great day. Bought over 1000 shares of SRS over the past couple days, average cost 50.50. Sold a lot at 56 yesterday, bought more and then dumped them at 53. I too was going to buy FXP at 29, but decided not to because I was already into SRS. My goal is to keep a baseline minimum number of shares of SRS, trading the heck out of them to reduce my cost basis until we finally hit the 200 dma, then hold on tight! I'm also doing the same thing with SKF @ 101. It's really tough to hold onto them though because the irrationality of the market is quite palpable. I can almost sense its greedy desire to rally, even though there is no fundamental basis for it.

Conorsh said...

I dunno guys, Tradings tough in a market like this. I'm adopting a take a position and hold attitude which is working out a lot better for me than jumping in and out.
Patience is a virtue in a volatile market...

Anonymous said...

Yesterday I still made 4.8% profit. Three days ago I sent the email to some posters, sorry I couldn't post here because someone would insult me again.

Thanks god !

Anonymous said...

Both long and short position are green, thank goodness!!

Some posters know, right !!

Anonymous said...

Snot,

When do you publish the dirty language book ? shame !

Anonymous said...

WMT is on sale today after reporting less than exciting numbers. Chart readers -- when should one step in and nibble on WMT?

Beatsnot -- give it a rest, guy. Go make some money on some stock trades that you say you are so good at, take your wife and kids out for a nice dinner, go by whichever retail store you hold stock in and buy something for the whole family like a good DVD and go home and watch it.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Joe,

Unlike the other hypocrite, you are a reasonable man.

In my opinion, retail stocks are over, please don't touch them until Nov.2009. Do you remember CC ?

Buy some solar stocks for the following reasons:

History tells us, new revolutionary technology or industry could grow the economy, for example, locomotive, electricity, electronics, and internet. next new revolutionary technology is green energy, especially solar energy,
so green energy is the right choice for all over the world and bring us out of the recession. It may create many many jobs in our country and may reduce the dependency on oil in the future. That's why Obama plans to invest lots of money in green energy sector.

BTW I have owned some companies since 1992, because my secretary write any document for me, also I concentrated on how to make money, I lost the writing ability gradually. Now I am on vacation, I 'd like to improve my write ability.

Anonymous said...

correction

I 'd like to improve my write ability.

I 'd like to improve my writing ability.

Anonymous said...

Personal hard-and-fast rule: Never, but never, respond to mud-slingers. It's like pitching manure in a hurricane; you're gonna wind up with some on you.

This market refuses to go back down in the face of amazingly bad news. Is this grasping at straws, or am I missing something? Bought more QID yesterday thinking that given poor results AND FORECASTS from some major players that this would send the NAS down. No such luck. Is this a simple matter of returning to averages and the market being oversold?

HK22, are you still out there?

Anonymous said...

What is the meaningful support for Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P500?

Thanks.

Iconoclast421 said...

My target for WMT is 45.50 in the next couple days. I'm seeing a convergence at that price. I admit I have no idea how its going to go that low given the force it takes to move it. All I'm saying is that's the price I would buy it at.

Iconoclast421 said...

Here is a chart of WMT that I used to calculated my price target. Note that WMT produced a sell signal by breaking an uptrending rsi support line yesterday.

Anonymous said...

so what is the general consensus about the market? Is this another leg down from here? Or it will return to DOW 9600 before it goes back down....

thebat

Anonymous said...

Thanks Iconoclast. So if WMT drops approximately another 10%, it ought to be a pretty safe purchase. Buying WMT is not the same as buy most other retailers. I'll try to have some dry powder ready if it gets close to that target price. May everyone have a profitable trading day and may the jobs numbers tomorrow not kill us.

Ah, you posted a chart. Thanks again Icon.

Joe

Iconoclast421 said...

I am positioning myself for the following moves: 1% gain tomorrow on SPX, -0.5% on monday, -3% on tuesday. IYR completed another stage of breakdown. After a small rally tomorrow I expect there to be another broken support next week. I am waiting patiently for SRS to drop to around 50 again.

Anonymous said...

Just from a general feel of things i would call the overall sense of the markets "comfortable" at them moment. No major hair trigger panic on the verge of bieng released, nobody worried about an imminent plunge to the lows or an imminent rally exploding.. It might go this way, might go that way, but not in the next few days..

Money is still slowly seeping back in, with growing confidence, and for that reason i think we will continue to see an appreciation for the moment at least.. Gradual is good.

Anonymous said...

sbbuilder,

You assaulted me more than three times, this is first time I rebut you.

1. Who would use this kind of long name and dirty language on this blog? Why didn't Snot blame them but responded them ?
please check them out, how many this kind of long names on this blog? the language is much dirty than yahoo message board. if someone read it and don't blame it, and still assault me, I just want to say: You are not a man, you are 100% a hypocrite.

2. If you don't know who use this kind of long name and dirty language on this blog? your assault is unreasonable.

Anonymous said...

Conor, your "comfortable" feel of the market seems reasonable with a lower and lower VIX and we get closer and closer to Obama as Prez. I like it too. Those wild swings of 500 points every day were too hard on the nerves. I put the last 20% of my money from money markets back into mutuals yesterday on the big down day so there was a teeny-tiny bit of money seeping back into the market. Right now I'm approximately 45% bonds and the rest equities except for a fluctuation of about 25% cash about once every week on my trading cycle.

Now, why don't one of you guys insult me with some rude language just for the fun of it.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Joe,

Now, why don't one of you guys insult me with some rude language just for the fun of it.

here is the answer:

One email said:

"I found that your thoughts over short term direction of stocks were much more accurate than other posters"


sorry for other posters.

Anonymous said...

Joe, you lousy @#!%&&. How dare you be so ^@%%# civil all the time! Are you trying to make this *#%^@#$% blog enjoyable or something?

The Citi news strikes me as being the first real common sensical bit of pending legislation yet. This would cut to the core of the mortgage crisis. Good for them. It will be interesting to see the details down the road. Did you see how the homebuilders' stock went right up?

Icon, conor, joe et all: my take on the markets' mood right now is that it is looking desperately for any piece of good news to latch onto as an excuse to buy a little more. Hope is an amazing thing.

Happy MLK day tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

...just keep "you know who" on ignore everyone...you can see it's having the desired effect...don't allow yourself to take the bait...

Anonymous said...

sbbuilder, thank you for insulting me. That felt good. What a great guy!

As for Citi, when is the time to nibble on it?

Joe

Iconoclast421 said...

OIL has given up 70% of its gains from the last rally. I'm kind of bummed that SRS didnt go back down to 50. I'm not holding nearly as much as I'd like, but hoo, what a ride regardless.

Anonymous said...

My hedge strategy is very good, both long and short are up around 5% today, it's the same as yesterday.

Thanks god !!! You save poor English man !!!

Anonymous said...

Beatsnot, what are your longs and your shorts? And a brief thought on one or two of them (chart or link maybe) on your choice. Any of them still a recommended buy? Or is it too late to the party?

Icon, thanks for the reminder that oil has retraced. I had sold off all my DBC and DIG over the last week and they had fallen off my radar. I bought back 1/3 of my DIG after you posted your message and hopefully I can run through another nice cycle with it over the next week or two.

I was able to sell my LTL at the open for about 12% profit over Monday's purchase price before it dropped sharply and I then bought back 1/2. I wish I could get that kind of percentage on all of my trades, but alas, no such luck. I love that low-volume ETF.

Back to work. Hope you guys make some money today. It was good to have some dry powder today.

Joe

Anonymous said...

Guys, Joe and Beatsnot are the same person. He only appeared after Bigboy disappeared and all posts are basically giving beatsnot something to respond to..
seriously, who would ask that idiot for buy and sell tips other than himself??

Snot, its time to restrict anons from posting...

Anonymous said...

Conor, that's a funny one. Beatsnot doesn't need something to respond to. He's a conspiracy theorist. I was trying to get him to say something other than, "Quit picking on me."

Guys, check out CREE. A friend told me that their lights have recently been installed in gov't buildings and Obama's energy efficiency measures may bring them more contracts.

Anonymous said...

As for restricting anons from posting, the problem with the system as it is now, I can post a message with your name on it as if it came from you when it really came from me, Joe.

Anonymous said...

Please forgive me for posting so much garbage on this blog. I will never post here again.

sbbuilder said...

Look! I've got a blue name now! Conor, or whomover, is right. Unless you're logged into google/blogger, you can post as anyone you want, including shamming as someone else.

What a week this has been. Although we've turned the page to '09, all the uglies from '08 refuse to go away. Congress must be working overtime because the Citi/democrat proposal floated yesterday is being already roundly criticized today.

Anonymous said...

Some posters who received my email are laughing. look at LDK and please read my above posting

You see, Snot post the garbage as follows:

"beatsnot said...
Please forgive me for posting so much garbage on this blog. I will never post here again.

January 9, 2009 1:41 PM "


it's approved that this blog runs like paid basher group.

Iconoclast421 said...

Isnt it amazing how DTO is up 60% this week, yet ERY is only up 20% or so?

My read of CREE suggests that it is at the top of a channel. I wouldnt buy till it drops down to the 50dma.

Anonymous said...

Joe,
( before I writing this posting, I didn’t read your last posting, but I still post here)

You see, now you know why I lost my temper on the blog.(sorry for other nice people.)

Some posters lack basic stock market knowledge, but they are the "expert" of insulting and assaulting other people.

I really want to help some small investors, they are working very hard, but always lose money in bear market,( most of people can make money in bull market ) We make money from the opposing side, it's not my money. So I don’t care to help other nice people.

Joe, don't care who they are, we come here to pursue money. Who can make most money, who is the king in this market. if someone can make more money than I, I call him as the king, I 'd like to study some skills from him.

You can find my email add. on WLTs’ message board. or you can post your email here. I can tell you my holding and why don’t buy LTL and WMT.

For saving your time, I repost some my biographic information as follows:

1. I made 19.5 times (including option)within 6 months in 2007.
2. I have made 2.3 times since Nov. 20, 2008.
3. I was the teacher who taught some students to trade stocks in our community.
4. One CEO who runs his company in Wall St. invited me to recommend the stocks for his company. ( I used the blog as the testing ).


And more…………… enough, enough, enough !!

BTW if my native language is English, what's next !!!!!!!!

Iconoclast421 said...

Sold 2/3 of remaining LDK @ 16.

Anonymous said...

"beatsnot said...
Some posters who received my email are laughing. look at LDK and please read my above posting

You see, Snot post the garbage as follows:

"beatsnot said...
Please forgive me for posting so much garbage on this blog. I will never post here again.

January 9, 2009 1:41 PM "


it's approved that this blog runs like paid basher group.

January 9, 2009 2:48 PM"

Note: before I writing the above posting, I did test the blog. so maybe it's not correct for something, sorry about that.

Iconoclast421 said...

I'm buying a small position in ALGT at 40.30. I do realize it is floating above a weaker support at 37.50, and am ok with it falling down to that level. I will dump if it closes below 37.33, and will triple down if it closes on that line.

Anonymous said...

correction:

"Note: before I writing the above posting, I did test the blog. so maybe it's not correct for something, sorry about that."

"Note: before I writing the above posting, I didn't test the blog. so maybe it's not correct for something, sorry about that."

BTW, My short position is up around 7% today, not bad!

Anonymous said...

I think LDK is a buy now for _swing_ (with tight stop).
Closed above the Fibo 38,2% with high volume, and 01.06 was accumulation day, too (I noticed that on that day).

ALGT is risky now, but with tight stop it's playable.

My best choices of the last week were EGLE and DRYS, 50% profit on both of them. :)

These ultra ETF's are unpredictable to me, I hate them.

GL!

Anonymous said...

Wondering if anyone here knows or uses TradeStation, or. knows of anything similar or better. I know how to program and think I could develop a profitable automated trading strategy. Any comments or suggestions would be much appreciated.

sbbuilder said...

Would any of those of you who voted to not send Madoff to jail care to share your thoughts with the rest of us? I can't, for the life of me, come up with any scenario other than that of sending him to a stinking, out-of-the-way, hillbilly (no offense) prison for the rest of his life.

This pernicious, sinking financial tide is having unexpected benefits. Like having those playing the shell game being exposed. The latest example, of course, is in India. I sincerely hope that we don't have too much of this, though, because that will certainly serve to erode what little trust there is left in the financial markets.

Good hunting this week, and I hope we all learn some sort of investing nugget as a bonus.

Anonymous said...

Maybe those who didn't want him to go to jail wanted to shoot him. :)

Better yet, turn him loose in a room with all of his investors for a couple of hours while law enforcement officials look the other way.

Iconoclast421 said...

Many solars are at the bottom of their channels now. Not LDK, but others such as JASO and SOL. I dumped my LDK proceeds into those 2. The chart of STP is a bit worrisome though. It needs to bounce back today to avoid producing a very bearish chart.

sbbuilder said...

The Detroit Auto Show (in my backyard) is the gloomiest I've ever seen it. It's actually quiet in Cobo Hall. Although there are a number of notable absences like Jaguar, Rolls and Mitsubishi, there is a newcomer here for the first time: from CHINA. Word is is that before there wasn't any room, but now with all the no-shows, there's room aplenty. Is this a harbinger or what?!

Has anyone actively played the 3x stuff? If you have, how did it go? What did you buy, and for how long, etc. Just to be clear, I have no intention of buying that stuff myself, but I am curious about how others may have fared.

Anonymous said...

What's the bottom for LDK icon?

j

Anonymous said...

Anyone have an idea where the market is heading?

Retest 7500?

Unknown said...

Sbbuilder,

I have been 100% cash since I sold FAS at ~25.

The are alright if you don't keep them long term.

I will buy back some shares tho at the end of the day.

Anonymous said...

I find it amazing that it takes a lawsuit in an attempt to get discloser from The Fed on where the bailout money has gone:

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1235009220090112

This is a absolute disgrace that The Fed and The Treasury can dish out billions of taxpayer money and not be 'transparent' on how the money was used!

On the one hand I am glad to see this article that a major news outlet is demanding the information be released. On the other hand I find it disgraceful
The Fed and The Treasury are allowed to operate the way they have been...absolutely disgraceful!

RL

Anonymous said...

Snot & others: does it look like the indexes have broken support now? dji and s&p500 both look like they've broken down, and maybe nasdaq is just on the verge?

i know everyone's been talking about the obama rally, how oversold we are, etc. i guess that's still possible, but wondering if i'm reading the charts right, or maybe just reading into it what I want to see...

RL

Iconoclast421 said...

My rough guess is 13.42 for a bottom on LDK. Rather, I should say that is the support. However, the sector is chipping away at its supports. Teetering, you might say! With the breakdown of STP, it makes me want to dump all my solars. STP did close on the 50 sma, for whatever that is worth. JASO looks ok, YGE looks great. Although some others, such as TSL and CSIQ look awful. LDK is right in the middle of the pack. YGE looks so much better that I wouldnt even mess with LDK right now. YGE is on support, so if it goes lower it will be less costly of a loss compared to LDK. I would go with YGE, but I already went with JASO and SOL. Those 3 are pretty much the same right now.

Anonymous said...

Snot, does this latest little downturn in the indexes mean:

(1) that you will commit a little more of your cash to going long?
(2) Or will you wait and see how earnings season develops?
(3) Or will you await for the inauguration and then go long?
(4) Or NOT!

Iconoclast421 said...

For those that have been trading or following SRS, take a look at the chart of IYR. Over the last 17 trading sessions, it has formed a downtrending channel. It is now at the bottom of that channel. IYR has to be due for a bounce! Because of that, I'm dumping all but 10% of my SRS. If the channel holds, then IYR will max out at around 35 later this week. I'll re-enter SRS if IYR goes over 34.

Anonymous said...

Icon, I'm not doubting you, but I'm having a hard time seeing the channel. Snot's charts have lines drawn so that the blind can see the channels.