Click chart to enlarge We just updated our performance for the first time in a while, and after one year on this blog, we are down 6.8%. The Dow is down 30.1% over the same time period. Not a great year for us, but we did manage to not lose big, and that's what 2008 was all about.
As for the market, we were hoping for Dow 9,000 as an opportunity to sell some shares, but we're hitting a major hurdle right now. We've run into the all-important 200dma. The 200dma is universally used to distinguish between bull and bear markets. It's the dividing line, so to speak. Technically, this would not turn into a bull market until we're trading above the 200dma and the 200dma is moving up as well. This takes time. For now, though, a significant break of the line would be a major milestone for technicians, and give hope to all that the market has finished its slide.
If we were more heavily invested at this point, we'd be lightening up on some of those shares right in here. However, considering we're only about 1/3rd invested, we're just going to wait and see. If the market does get rejected at the line and resume its fall, we'll just be adding to our position all the way down. It's hard to believe that we could possibly launch any kind of sustained bull market given there's no new industry or invention driving it. All we've really done over the past couple months is make up for a severe over-correction in the market. Hardly a bull. If we had to guess, we would vote that the market drops from this point. However, Government Sachs may have a different idea for the near term future of your 401k that we're not privvy to.
18 comments:
Thanks, how is the real estate market doing?
If you want to go ultra international developed markets, there is a new ultra ETF -- EFO. And for emerging there is EET. They came out late last week.
Thanks Joe. Good info.
CROX CEO appears on CNBC and CROX goes up 20%. Is this market crazy or what? I think I might just stick with QQQQ and SPY.
UNG appears to have bottomed -- once again -- and be moving up nicely.
An article called 6 ways to profit from the falling dollar BY Roger Fillion, gives these suggestions:
1. Buy overseas stock and bond mutual funds
2. Buy shares or funds of big U.S. companies with significant overseas sales
3. Buy commodities or commodity funds
4. Buy overseas currencies
5. Buy ‘TIPS’ or funds that bet against U.S. Treasury bonds
6. Buy shares in a real estate investment trust.
Thanks Joe
snot's blog has really died off as of late...
The blog will only be as good as the users make it. We can't expect Snot to do it all. Why not post your charts, links, article summaries from the experts, alerts, tips, possible buys, successful trades, lousy trades, etc. and let everyone read them or ignore them?
1. I sold my UNG on the spike yesterday via a trailing stop for 7.3% gain. :)
2. I bought back into Ford yesterday moments before they announced they may sell more stock to reduce debt. Groan. :(
3. Is URE a buy? It has been bouncing off the 50% RSI and appears to be near the bottom of its channel. I haven't bought it yet, as I'm slightly on margin and need to sell something today to be off before the close.
URE chart link
LNN URS BKE Buys at the right time.
What a very informative post! LNN, URS & BKE are buys at the "right time"? Really? That's wonderful information! Thank you so much for sharing that. Wow. I'll be sure not to buy them at the "wrong time" now thanks to you.
If you all want a bunch of dumbasses telling you their supposed trades or all you want to be is a day trader then you'd be much better served going to a Yahoo message board.
Snot's been right all along so what's the problem??
And to the last anonymous, your post was "wonderful information" too. "Thank you so much for sharing that."
Joe: i disagree with you. The blog (all blogs) will only be as good as the author makes it, not the users. If it were determined by the users, it would be a message board, not a blog.
I appreciate reading the users comments also, but when the author no longer posts, I feel the term 'died off' is some what appropriate.
I'm not sure how you can disagree with me if you compare snot's contributions originally compared to now. It's a night & day comparison! I'm not trying to bash on snot, but it is what it is...
Market conditions are dictating how much Snot posts. When the market was rocking there was reason to post frequently. Now that the market is grinding sideways in a range (just like Snot said it would) what do you want from him? To report on a weekly basis "Still holding". Then the next: "Still holding" and on and on and on?
Everyone is so eager to bash Cramer but that's what happens when a person is forced to put together a show every single solitary day...you either get labeled a flip-flopper or someone like John Stewart takes 6, 9 & 12 month old clips and nails you with them. No doubt Cramer knew all along people would be better served by sitting in cash on the sidelines, but how could he keep viewers tuning in if he kept repeating that for months at a time?
Snot's telling it like a responsible investment advisor would. If you want day-trade recommendations then you're in the wrong place.
I agree that a blog is only as good as it's author, and Snot's posts have been very beneficial to me by helping me preserve both my mental capital and my monetary capital, so let's keep this a blog and not let it turn into a Yahoo like message board.
Thanks Snot!
Well said Donald
OK, with one slight misunderstanding noted. Long, long, long term investing and day trading aren't the only two alternatives. One can channel trade with a 1 week, 2 week, or 3 month perspective. I'm not a day trader except on rare occasions. And for the last Anon and Donald, thank you for respectful posts. People can disagree in a nice way.
I agree the blog isn't the same without Snot being as active, but what is a comments section for anyway? Is it for Snot to talk to himself?
Joe, UNG on the verge of a major break-out. Thoughts?
BIGA, I don't anything more than you guys on UNG. I got trailing stopped out last Thursday after holding for a few days. I didn't buy back in after it dropped that day, because a friend sent me a report from CNBC, I think, saying that a cycle in the way gas contracts work suggests that you should be out of gas, no pun intended, by the 17th. We will know in a few days if the expert was right. I'm holding two sectors and three indexes. Overdiversified, Snot would say.
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