Click chart to enlarge Is there anyone still reading this blog? We lost interest in the market for a while, but a recent glance at our account piqued our interest again. We're actually in the black since we started the blog in mid July. Barely in the black, but heck, flat is the new up.
Every time the market nears the top of the channel, we get tempted to drop DDM and SSO, but it never spikes high enough to tempt us that much. If we had a quick spike to the area of the red line, we'd sell it all and just wait. We still think that despite all of this recent strength, the market is just finding the top of a new sideways channel in which it will live for the next two years or so.
Before we have any truly sustained (multiyear) bull market, we need new innovation, which doesn't exist right now. When "the next big thing" comes along, this blog will be all over it. Finding the next leaders is what we do best. Well, that, and pointing out when they die.
But for now, the best we can do is stay long with a third of our stock portfolio and try to play the channel with some portion of those long holdings, all the while avoiding overexposure. At some point, the market will hit the top of its new sideways channel and then feel around for a bottom. Maybe sideways from 8,000 to 10,500 for two years? How does that sound? Your guess is as good as ours. We'd like to hear what others think the near term future holds.
More important than guessing the market's next direction is now trying to find that "next big thing." You won't find it any earlier than anyone else. You just have to understand it sooner.
We're most interested in any help we can get in spotting the next major phenomenon. Let's all work together and make the next bull work for us!
8 comments:
Snot, you deleted previous posts with SELL, SELL, SELL!
I thought you are a men of integrity. I was wrong, sorry who will trust what you will say now?
snot are you still bullish on RE? i think we see a downtrend resume as the stimulus runs out.
if they pass mandatory health care to the tune of $16,000 per year i will leave the country.
the "next best thing" is already here right in front of us. GOLD.
88888888's
Yes some of us are still reading and enjoying your views. hope to hear from you more often.
Glad to see you back Snot. I learned a lot in in this blog. Keep those articles coming. I'll read them all.
LeBlanc, Canada
It's great to see there is still life on this blog! BTW, I the last post was crashing our internet connection because it had 191 comments. As always, we stick to the recommendation to trade with the trend. If a chart is trading below a downtrending MA, it's a sell. Now we're trading above an uptrending 200 day MA, so if you're long, you're trading with the trend. We can't deny the market's bullishness, we just think it's a bounce back rather than the start of a sustainable bull. Unless, of course, we get that final ingredient... innovation. Without that, this bounce is far from signaling a new era in America's economic expansion. How many think the whole 2008 sell-off was a planned event, designed to make billions for those "in the know"?
888888's, Can't deny the strength in GLD, but it's looking very toppy right now. Not saying that the longer term trend will change, but at least short term, a 7%-8% correction is overdue.
We still think this is a GREAT time to buy some raw land, if you are fortunate enough to be in the position to do so. Long term, you have to be a bull on real estate, but you have to buy in areas where they aren't making more land.
Still here Snot ...
YEah, i drop in every now and then, but dont bother reading all the spammers. I also lost interest in the market for quite a while. I've been sitting and holding for a year now, waiting for things to come back to where there is a measure of predictability agian. The slow steady recovery is good, and i find it funny that you can see recovery all around us, in the markets, in housing prices, in new builds coming on teh market, in industry, in packed malls. All this activity and yet listen to the news and you would think we are still in the midst of a death spiral.. How many people are yet to buy back in i wonder? What will happen when people do start buying stocks again..
Secretsniper / Conors
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