Any questions?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Our Performance
June 1, 2008: 32.25
June 1, 2012: 36.25
Our performance since inception: + 12.40%
Performance of S&P since inception: - 8.71%
June 1, 2012: 36.25
Our performance since inception: + 12.40%
Performance of S&P since inception: - 8.71%
Legal Disclaimer
Information contained in this blog is not intended as investment advice. Posts do not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or sponsorship of any company, security, or fund. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.
Author may have open positions in the securities and funds mentioned.
Author may have open positions in the securities and funds mentioned.
36 comments:
New stock worth watching: PANL.
What's this mean?
http://www.streetinsider.com/Equity+Offerings/Rubicon+Tech+(RBCN)+Files+$100M+Mixed+Shelf,+$40M+Common+Shelf+for+Selling+Shareholders/5697350.html
"Rubicon Tech (RBCN) Files $100M Mixed Shelf, $40M Common Shelf for Selling Shareholder"
Warnings have been out for quite some time on RBCN dilution coming:
dilution concern
If RBCN can hold up under dilution, that will be significant relative strength demonstrated.
From TDAmeritrade:
Rubicon Technology Withdraws Shelf Registration Last update: 6/3/2010 6:19:02 AM (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires (212-416-2400) June 03, 2010 06:19 ET (10:19 GMT)
bizarre. they withdraw it, appears as if rbcn wanted to manipulate their own stock today:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=215281&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMTBrd2l6YXJkLmNvbS94bWwvZmlsaW5nLnhtbD9yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9Njk5MzA5MSZhdHRhY2g9T04mc1hCUkw9MQ%3d%3d
glut article
Stuff like RBCN's con makes me want to stick to ETFs. I guess it's that whole Risk / Reward thing...
Please explain RBCN's new today!? Thanks.
Does dilution always cause a lower share price? With more outstanding shares, will it cause a stock share price to be harder to move? Or does it not really matter in the end?
On relative strength, yes, I have a question. LED stocks appear to have relative weakness compared to the market. Why should one stick with any of them? Why not switch to FCG? Even Obama uttered the words "natural gas" the other day.
I'd be nervous holding RBCN shares after the shenanigans management pulled with the shelf registration. Not exactly a confidence building move. If they screw up that badly on something like that, how are they running RBCN day to day?? Are they making other amateur mistakes that shareholders don't know about yet?
Anon,
We believe that RBCN used the SEC's EDGAR system (Electronic Data Gathering and Retrieval) to file the shelf registration. Not suprisingly, any time you mix beauracracy with computers, you get mayhem. Of the past 1,460 applications to be funneled through EDGAR, only 83 got through the system on the first attempt. It appears the system is still in Beta format, and will not likely be bug-free until 2028.
So do you believe that RBCN will be going through with the shelf registration? And if they do, won't that drag the share price down?
Just bought my first layer of RBCN @ 24.86. Very scary. But isn't that when you're supposed to buy?
I bought a whopping 100 shares at $24.85 just now. Yep, scary is the word. How much further can it drop? A lot, unfortunately. Best to everyone. I hope for a bounce for everyone on the blog. Icon, with this extreme volatility, have you made money on both ends of a straddle play over the course of 2 or 3 days? That would be cool.
Let's all pray for a bit fat hairy bounce on Monday!
I was surprised that there didn't seem to be any short covering at the close. I thought shorts would be afraid of some good news in Europe setting off a rocket underneath the market on Monday. At the moment, though, shorts do not seem to be afraid. Volume seemed to be just a little above normal, so nothing unusual on the volume for the day for the S&P. At least I'm even money on my first 100 shares of RBCN. Ha!
well snot, i have to say your timing is impeccable. your latest blog entry shows what happens to me every time i get cocky and make a call. i wonder if the company will comment on the event. how many shares are they putting into circulation, if any? 88888888's
joe, here's your europe news, lets hope for a big fat hungary bounce monday, 8888's:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJ9jvhdaqy3A&pos=2
Anon, just curious... was it what RBCN did or what the market did on Friday that was scary?
Different Anon here. So so hard to not let emotion take the reins here. I passed up a very large $ gain to watch it vanish on RBCN in two days. A stock dropping 10% that has in the past shown great strength is troublesome. Until I see RBCN go up while the market drops instead of acting like a 3X ETF it will be "scary"
Hey Snot, I'm the Anon that posted the "scary" comment. It was the fact that RBCN's percentage drop was almost equal to the day of the Flash Crash that made it scary to buy. It also didn't help that it was late Friday afternoon and there is a possible share dilution of 20%+ looming on the horizon.
RBCN's chart looks to me like it has been forming a wedge pattern since April and could just as easily breakdown as breakout.
That said, if we get a down day on Monday I will be buying another 10% layer at 22-23, and then if the market continues to drop during the week I will add more at 20-21 which looks like it would be near the bottom of it's trend channel.
In a previous post you said you would be backing up the truck if it got to the low 20s/high teens- is that still your plan?
Thanks, and GLTA with this one.
Anon, we can't disagree, RBCN acted out of character on Friday. We do plan on buying a lot of it as it drops, as long as its relative strength doesn't change. That is to say that if it keeps dropping harder than the market itself, that's a company-specific problem and it's time to reconsider. But if it remains bouyant and drops just because the market is pulling it lower, then that an opportunity. We sold VECO not because it was dropping, but because it was dropping harder than the other LED stocks. Its action pointed to company-specific weakness of some kind. Our theory in the market is to place the majority of our capital
1.) in stocks of leading sectors with potential for near term growth
2.) that show signs of strength relative to the broader market regardless of whether that strength is shown during a bull or a bear market
3.) and to buy on weakness caused by the broader market rather than weakness caused by company-specific issues.
RBCN's action on Friday was disappointing, but it is still unclear as to whether it was pulled down largely by the 329 point drop in the market, or by the dilution (or other company-specifics).
If RBCN redeems itself on Monday, we'll forget Friday ever happened. One day does not make a trend. But if instead RBCN shows continued signs of weakness, we may be starting the search for greener pastures.
At some point, we'll be in a stock that will explode when the market turns around. It's not an easy time right now, but the payoff makes it all worthwhile. We thought that stock would be VECO, but it became clear that people were willing to part with their shares of VECO, so we were wrong. Maybe that stock is RBCN. We're sure hoping it is, but we're not wedded to any stock. If it's not RBCN, it'll be another. Only time will tell.
There you go, RBCN up around 10% when the market was up just 0.3% today, and held on pretty well until close. Hopefully more people are watching this stock.
Don Worden commented on both VECO & CREE today, both negatively. Might be time to dump your CREE stake Snot as it is one ugly looking chart. Either that or double down when it hits 50.
Yeah, RBCN held up well today considering it was "attack on LED day". CREE's chart looks horrible, but no worse than a chart of the market itself. Looks like we're entering the start of a new leg down. It feels like 2008 all over again!
We're not sure what to do with CREE. We should probably bail on it, but it's not falling for company-specific reasons, it's just following the broader market like most everything else. In the long run, we'll most likely be wishing we had bought a few more shares during these times. Perhaps at 50 or 40 it would actually represent good value. We don't have much CREE, so we haven't been too focused on it. We're primarily concerned with RBCN. If this does turn out to be another leg down, RBCN make break down into a new trading range as well. At that point we'd be in a tough spot.
Looks like short term Symmetrical Triangle could break up or down on RBCN any time now? Is this a reliable indicator to bail if it breaks down, or load up on shares if it breaks up?
wow...zzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzz
wake up Snot followers! Whats everyone's update and opinions?
Rubicon Technology, Inc. Announces Offering of 1,800,000 Shares of Common StockLast update: 6/11/2010 8:05:00 AMFRANKLIN PARK, Ill., Jun 11, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Rubicon Technology, Inc. (RBCN) (the "Company") today announced that it will offer 1,800,000 shares of its common stock pursuant to an underwritten public offering. The Company intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 270,000 shares of common stock from the Company to cover over-allotments, if any.
RBCN's current share float: 14.25M
Additional Dilutement: 2,070,000 (you KNOW they will exercise the over-allotment)
This equals a 14.52% share dilutement.
Low 20s within the next week or two??
The share float is 14.25M but the Total Shares Outstanding is 20.27M which means it's only a 10% dilution. Still not the best news, but not as bad as a 14.5% dilution.
I wish it would go to low 20's....
I've seen a lot of stocks get crushed on news like this, just to bounce back hard the next week. Who knows, the cat was let out of the bag last week (or two weeks ago?) on this so it's low longer a surprise.
I'm all in, on the broader market. Got some June hail marys, and july calls too. LEDs should be carried along with the stream.
My only hedge is Home Depot june puts. 10 cents at the $30 strike, and 20 cents at the $31 strike! Very nice cheap hedge. That chart is emitting a monster(!) sell signal. Market MUST rally broadly or HD goes down the drain.
So Snot or others,
What do you think RBCN's move today will do to the stock short term (say next week) and long term (say 6 months from now)?
RBCN continues to have very high relative strength. Looks like it's in an ascending triangle rather than a symmetrical one. If the market is finished correcting (still a big "if"), then we wouldn't be suprised if RBCN breaks out to new highs in as little as a couple of sessions. That's, of course, only if the market continues rallying. If RBCN does make new highs shortly, the biggest mistake one can make is to assume they missed it. A stock that holds up well during a correction and then makes new highs long before the market itself can be bought on the breakout, not just at the lows. These signs of strength (resisting decline and posting new highs) forecast a very strong run for a stock in the months ahead.
And this notion that the news of the dilution is somehow weighing on the stock is misled. The "news" of the dilution was already factored into the stock's price about 6 months ago when the rumor starting making its way through the offices at Goldman Sachs and others. Anyone with enough capital to move a stock gets the "news" about 6 months before the rest of us.
I posted a remark on this blog on April 23rd mentioning the possibility of dilution. Later I gave the following link where dilution is mentioned on the RBCN Yahoo message board.
April 22nd message on dilution
That message refers to a message with the same information that was posted on November 19th of last year under "RBCN shopping equity deal", last commented on on Dec. 4.
Nov 19th post
By my calculation, that is more than the GS 6 months ago when this information was available to all of you here in the RBCN message board. :) So, Snot, do the hedgies and investment banks know things six months ahead of time; yet, their analysts are wrong, according to you, 50% of the time and, again according to you, any dork who learns to read a chart like you teach them to can know just as much as any of those hedgies and investment bankers? You can't have it both ways. Yes, they do have an advantage because (1) they pay for information, (2) they have more contact with important people (they can sit at a conference call or lunch and ask a question and watch body language, (3) they have better computers than we do, (4) they have a big staff, and (5) they work at it full time. But the advantage is more like days, hours or, at best, minutes or seconds most of the time. And they get caught on the wrong side of a trade quite often. Even with all their advantages, they aren't superhuman.
ETFs and hedgies
Post a Comment