Click chart to enlargeJust added a layer of CF in the 144's. Earnings are due out tomorrow for POT and CF, so we're only adding small layers today. The more Ag pulls back, the more we'll add. Still holding SMN of course. From a longer term viewpoint, today could be a great buying opportunity even if the stocks continue to sell off after earnings. The closer CF gets to the center of its channel, of course the less risk there is in buying into it. See chart of CF above. We'd like to get into POT, but it would have to drop quite a bit further. That name in particular is overextended considering its large market cap.
12 comments:
I was travelling yesterday and today and did not get my order for DRYS filled yesterday. But I am so glad I sold my FXP a couple of days back.
I have some SMN, so it is providing me some respite. I will start adding POT and CF, when they reach their mid channels. Also, DE once it touching 85.
I don't know if my orders will get filled. I missed out on DRYS yesterday, but will add a small portion if it falls to the low 80s
--clarke
It's asking a lot to get the Ag stocks at their mid channels. Why not buy a small amount at the 3/4 mark, then add more if it drops further?
Actually, I think the time is now ripe for their fibonacci retracement of atleast 38%, maybe more.
I am expecting another 300 day this week or early next week. We have had consolidation until now. But I think the top will see heavy selling or profit taking in all the stocks which have run up. Ag is due for a correction. It has < 3-4% upside imo at this point. POT is confirming it, with what looks to me like an exhaustion gap.
I don't mind waiting out a week or so. Also, I will be moving this week and so I don't know how much time I can devote to following the market.
--clarke
Hi Snot,
I know this is a bit off topic, but the first poster mentioned FXP. What are your thoughts on that right now?
- stoptazzer
Wow, FXP down 10! Haven't been following it. We've been out of it for a while. FXI broke its 100dma and resistance line today, so no doubt FXP should be getting hammered. SMN is our hedge of choice right now, as our longs are in Ag.
Hi Snot,
This is purely out of technical curiosity.
The MER chart looks to me like an ascending triangle. It also seems like 44 could be the trendline bottom. I know financials are still dangerous. It seems that MER can run upto 52-53 soon, before resuming its slightly flatter downtrend, connecting its July 07, Oct 07 highs.
What do you think? Is the picture not similar to the HBs?
--clarke
China spiked on stock tax relief. News trumps TA and fundamentals every time.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK32196220080423?rpc=44
Ag may be headed for a correction, at least commodities.
http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/commodity_prices_near_turning_point_080409.html
There is a new ultra-short on agriculture called AGA. I can find much info on it, though. If ag pops, AGA might be good. If ag takes off again, what about shorting AGA, or is there an ultra-agriculture long? Anyone know more about AGA the ETN or an ultra ag long?
There are 4 new Ag ETN's
Ultrashort= AGA
Ultralong= DAG
Short= ADZ
Long= AGF
Low volume on them, though.
Clarke,
MER is definitely in an ascending triangle, but they work a lot better when they form in uptrending charts, especially when the resistance line is at a new high.
The problem with these short term triangles (MER's is only 6 weeks in the making), is that their support line is not very significant. A break of resistance is usually more dramatic than a break of support.
Still, MER's triangle is very clear.
It is like the HB's. HOV and LEN remain in their triangles despite PHM having broken through its support. Of course, PHM's drop was a direct reaction to the fact that its earnings were due out after the bell. People sold ahead of the report to avoid getting CROX'd. They did the same with Ag today ahead of POT's morning report tomorrow (Thurs).
If PHM can't make it back into its channel tomorrow, it doesn't paint a pretty near term picture for the HB's. Considering their report disappointed, it looks like PHM is headed for another down day. Although you never can tell how the market will react to earnings.
Agreed. I am beginning to strongly believe now the Ag sector will correct pretty soon. There is rampant media coverage of rising food prices etc. It is just way too much hysteria and then TD upgraded POT, at the extreme top of its range, today.
As for MER, It is worthwhile watching (probably from the sidelines). I have learnt so much in this market than probably from a bull market. Also, thanks to you.
--clarke
Also, probably a fun trade in the breakout, triangle pattern would be CHNR. The chart very looks nicely poised.
--clarke
Thanks for the heads-up on CHNR. Just wrote a post about it. Wouldn't watch it every day, it could take a while... or maybe not. Still, setting an alarm or two on that chart is very worthwhile!
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