A chart of MOS - Click to enlarge
A chart of CF - Click to enlarge
A chart of POT - Click to enlarge
A chart of MTL - Click to enlarge
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Our Performance
June 1, 2008: 32.25
June 1, 2012: 36.25
Our performance since inception: + 12.40%
Performance of S&P since inception: - 8.71%
June 1, 2012: 36.25
Our performance since inception: + 12.40%
Performance of S&P since inception: - 8.71%
Blog Archive
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2008
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April
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- Charts
- Buy low, sell high
- Solar sector (SPWR)
- Commodity Raid
- Solar correction?
- CF Industries (CF)
- Mosaic (MOS)
- Triangle (CHNR)
- Ag opportunity?
- Infrastructure (CBI)
- DSX breakout
- The Dow - 200dma
- Drybulk Sector
- Homebuilders
- Financials (UYG)
- Dow's resistance
- Deere (DE)
- Long term POT
- Blue Coat (BCSI)
- Parabolic POT?
- Crocs (CROX)
- Mechel (MTL)
- Short Fin (SKF)
- LDK Solar (LDK)
- Dow and S&P
- Adjusting Offsets
- CF Industries (CF)
- US Materials (SMN)
- Potash (POT)
- Charting the Dow
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April
(30)
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22 comments:
Thanks for the charts Snot.
I may miss the boat on MOS and MTL. I think they will break this channel and go into their 2006 trendline, especially MOS. As you said in your comments, these both accelerated compared to their others, it can be expected for them to correct more too.
--clarke
Clarke- MOS & MTL at their 2006 trendlines? Or did you mean 2007? 2006 would put MOS at $15 a share, and MTL at $22. That would certainly be a brutal correction.
Craig
First pardon me, for my ultrabasic charts. I have scottrade and the charting capability is not good as snot's.
Anyways :-
MOS,MON,MTL behave like this. POT,CF don't
http://img31.picoodle.com/img/img31/4/4/30/f_MOSm_12b4568.png
What I am saying is this.The line in blue is from the beginning of 2007. The line in grey is the trendline from fall 2007. It is much steeper than the earlier trend. When Snot said MOS is in its 1/4 channel, he is referring to the fall 2007 channel, if you see his charts , they start around sep 2007.
I am saying, I won't be surprised if 110 is broken i.e. fall 2007 trend is broken on MOS and we actually find support on the earlier trendline. This would be around 88-90 today. In about a week's time it is about 95. Also the 200d will be somewhere close by, so I absolutely think this will hold.
For the fall trend to hold, it needs to keep increasing almost daily, since MOS is almost beginning to rest on this line . Any correction (since POT, CF show there may still be some) and MOS can break the fall trend.
This is my opinion. I would definitely appreciate any thoughts.
--clarke
Clarke,
The bigger issue here is that the Dow is within 100 points of its 200dma, and the S&P500 is very close to hitting major psychological resistance at 1400.
It's fair to say that the market will make a decisive move one way or the other as we reach these milestones. Our guess is down, but that's just because the economy is very weak save for the government's artificial injections (which have simply been put on the U.S. credit card).
We own MOS, POT and CF already, because we try not to time the market as a whole. Why not scale into these positions rather than trying to catch the bottom?
SDS here @ 57, in the immortal words of Tony Montana "is pooro, you can't lose!"
No way does the S&P get over and stay above 1400 for long after Gentle Ben mauls the market this afternoon.
Peace
Do you ever get the sense that the Fed is a car completely out of control, grossly oversteering from one direction to the other, trying to stay in the lane?
Today may be the day to buy these stocks. We'll have to wait and see. If they get hammered this afternoon, we're jumping in.
Well, Ben was late to the party to begin with and he's been playing catch-up ever since. Had he lowered by .50pts rather than .25pts back at the December meeting he might not have found himself so far behind the 8 ball.
As it is this expected .25pt cut is pretty much unecessary and most likely overkill...but if he doesn't cut the market's going to throw a MAJOR hissy fit, so whaddya do?
I'd love to see him defy expectations, but he's been burned too many times and he's probably not going to risk upsetting the apple cart.
JMHO
Actually, I differ in opinion. Rate cuts are never the answer. He should have been raising rates. A bit of history which I googled, rate cuts have always preceded stock market declines. Mind you, I am not saying this is a causal relationship.
All over the world, reserve banks are fighting inflation by keep rates high. Only in the US, we are fighting for it.
--clarke
I'm not smart enough to know what the exact right answer is, but I do know that last December the market was expecting .50pt cut and when it only got a .25pt cut the DOW proceeded to lose about 2,000pts (from it's Dec. high) until it hit the January low.
That French dude still would've mucked up the works, no doubt, but my point was if the market doesn't get what it expects today the knee jerk reaction is going to be to run for the exits.
Again, JMHO
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwn!!!
I was hoping for a selloff. Might have to wait until tomorrow. :)
Hi Snot,
Any thoughts on RIMM? It looks somewhat interesting for a starter position to me right here at 123.
Thanks,
Craig
Why mate? Why RIMM ? The DJI is at the 200d doorstep. RIMM almost nearing all time highs. The rally from its lows of 82 has been long, the chart is looking tired.
let it break 133. We shall see then. My bet is it will not soon.
--clarke
Hi Clarke,
I've always considered RIMM to be a tech "darling", so while I agree there's downside (as it's proving right this instant) on the chart, it's doubtful it goes much below 112 before it gets propped back up. It just looks "center of channel" to me right around this area.
Isn't the conventional wisdom right now that people are rotating out of Ag and into Tech? As I'm sure everyone already knows, Dennis Gartman said yesterday that he's "short of DE" which take it for what it's worth...the guy's been right more times than he's been wrong so we'll all see.
If anyone sees any better tech plays give a shout out!
Craig
Well I did not get my fill of DE at 83. It ran away today. I don't have a TV, so I don't watch american TV.
I will probably wait until I see what happens till this weekend. We are at the inflection point. Technically, there is not much upside on the DOW, at least for a short while. I won't be entering into tech or any other sector without a longer term trend (like ag has).
As for RIMM, I think you can buy it around 110 in the coming weeks - that is where its 1.5 year trend line is and the 200d is. If the DOW breaks 13100 (its 200d) I will change my view, until them I am bearish and maintain we are in a bear market rally.
--clarke
There is a lot of danger in investing in RIM, it took them 8 years to build a subscriber base that Apple will have built in a single year, if apple is successful in getting into the enterprise market, say bye to RIM, its done, their stock goes to 0. If apple isnt, RIM is gonna stay right where they are because the blackberry is a piece of junk compared to the iphone if you look at it from the consumer's perspective (think surfing the net, music, games, etc..) The only thing that RIM has is email, thats it. Every single person i have talked to recently who is buying a phone looks at the blackberry, and then the iphone, and chooses the iphone, and then is pissed off bc of the time they wasted looking at the blackberry. there is no contest. If you are even considering getting into RIM right now, dont, just buy apple instead, you will thank me in 2 years...
-dk
DK,
No doubt Apple is a great company and the iphone will be a major competitor in the space, but Google is going to give them a run for their money when they release their gphone later this year.
With oil and food prices showing no signs of pulling back, who wouldn't want a cell phone that was paid for by advertisers?
Google may just completely revolutionize the way consumers pay for communications.
For the watchers, Ag and DE are duelling with their long term trendlines and 200d.
--clarke
DE just goes to show you that analysts can see out more than a few days:)
We've been selectively nibbling at the Ag names, awaiting the "big drop". Losing money, but not much thanks to SMN. We aren't planning on selling any SMN unless we get a capitulation day. Until then, it's great to know it's there just in case.
Have you been watching solar today? FSLR, STP, SPWR... possible break of support today. Maybe a 50% retracement of their recent gains is in the cards?
correction: ...analysts CAN'T see out more than a few days...
Last week they were talking the stock up.
Analysts are mostly looking after their own pockets.
Have not been watching solar lately. Most of the charts, I looked about 4-5 days ago looked very bad. I remember looking at AKNS when another poster on your blog had said his firm was long AKNS. To me it looked like the chart was ready to be killed and sure enough, there it is.
The problem with layering in for me is I don't have the kind of equity as yet. I cannot buy at a price and double down lower etc. So, I am a bit conservative. I was out of my SMN around 34. I am waiting for the correction in DJI. I will probably add DXD or SDS or even SKF. I need to see the charts of financials, most of them are now very close to the downtrend lines from an year back. So in essence I will be betting that they won't break them the first around at least. And my MER call was spot on, I feel so happy actually, though I sold off MER a while back.
Psychological, today seems to be the perfect set up for a sell off tomorrow or on monday, somenear 12700. Just thinking about what transpired from the FED meeting yesterday and today's continuing run up, it just seems perfect for the slaughter.
--clarke
Ag just doesn't want to get up off it's back today.
Sure looks like more rotation out of AG/Steel and into Tech today.
Craig
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