Click chart to enlargeOur average price on MTL is 47.1 (Some of these shares were bought in April) We're looking to lighten up on MTL as it approaches the top of its channel. Dumping half at 57+ and the other half at 60 makes sense from a technical standpoint. Of course, that is, if we're given the opportunity to sell at those prices. After today's run, it's hard to believe it has any more upside short term other than a brief morning rally. Clearly MTL's long term uptrend is intact, and if we do sell, we'll immediately start watching for a re-entry point.
While MTL may soon be getting overbought, the Ag names are looking like they may have bottomed. It's way too early to make that call yet, so we'll just have to wait and see. We're hoping for lower prices (a capitulative bottom), but we may have to settle for the soft landing we just got. Odds favor short term profit-taking over a strong follow-through move, so if the near term strength gets irrationally exuberant, we'll be ringing the register on some of our Ag holdings just as a trade. Any stock that goes up 15-20% in two days can usually be had at a discount a day later. We're not looking to sell, but if CF is up another 12 tomorrow, we'll lock in some quick profits on 25% of our CF position and look for re-entry. It's an unlikely scenario, but if opportunity knocks, we'll be home.
13 comments:
CF $142~$144 May 25
MOS $134~$136 May 25
POT $188~$194 May 25
That is what I had written in a text file I've had sitting on my desktop since the end of April. Those were my price targets for the end of May, based on trendlines. Strangely, POT is over, and MOS and CF are way under. Till yesterday anyway.
Watch for reversal of solar on German news (solar down huge yesterday and possibly up huge today).
Link to article
Snot,
The recent chart of UWM shows it in an uptrend, but it hasn't reached its 200 DMA quite yet. The last few weeks show a fairly consistent behavior of 2 to 5 down days followed by 3 to 6 up days. If it continues in this trend, Monday or Tuesday would be a day to sell and in one week it would be time to buy back if one is trying to ride those waves for 3% to 6% gains every other week. Typically how long does a stock in a trend like this continue such a pattern? Or is there no "typical" trend to such a trend? Or am I reading the chart cross-eyed?
Link to chart
Snot,
What happened to all of the updates bud, I looked forward to reading them.
Daryan
No need for a lot of updates because there's nothing to update. We're long pot, mos, cf, agu and mtl, with smn as a hedge. Add near the bottom of the channel, lighten up as they reach the top.
There's no need to focus on anything other than what's working each year. If one had just bought Dell, then sold to buy Aol, then sold to buy Jdsu, then sold to buy Goog, they'd be much better off than any fund around. Our approach is to identify the stocks that mark each era of the stock market and to buy them on dips and lighten up when they get overextended. Other than that, we just wait. Right now we're just waiting to see how high Ag will go, and are waiting to get a good price for MTL so we can start raising some cash for the next drop.
That, and we're stockpiling firewood. Everything else is just noise:)
I've been watching GE, VLO, and ALU. They all look like good buys right now. But POT, CF and MOS have all the technicals on their side right now. CF looks like it is headed straight for $170
Hard core profit taking in the ferts...gotta be nimble!!
Why is FXP up so much?
wow look at GRO grow! Totally missed the boat on that one. It was putting off plenty of buy signals on monday, but I simply did not have that stock on any of my watch lists. argh....
Snot...what is the good price for MTL?
Snot, i am watching a cup and handle figure in the Dow, the S&P and the nasdak.
Maybe you can tell us your perception.
If this is true all this index are going to break up.
I was relieved to see that MTL held up pretty well on Friday..after the slaughter...
I read in a few places that it may go over 60 in the next week to 10 days but I dont see that...any opinions?
Werent you the guy that was telling everyone to buy FXP at 115 because the world was coming to an end?
What kind of scumbag are you to keep posting your plagarized parrot dribble on a blogsite?
You lost alot of people money. You should just shut up
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