Friday, January 2, 2009

SPY & AAPL


Click charts to enlarge
The chart at the top is SPY (S&P 500). It's still in an ascending triangle making another stab at breaking resistance, as are the other indexes. Most charts, particularly large caps, resemble the chart of SPY in that they are making an attempt to return to their moving average. In these charts, we've shown the 100dma, although the 200dma is really the milestone that helps distinguish between long term bull and bear markets.
The chart below SPY is a chart of AAPL (Apple). Unlike most large cap names, we see no buying interest in AAPL. It is not making an attempt to return to its average. Instead, it is resting on the support line of a large descending triangle. Overall, this phenomenon (this divergence from the action of the broader market) is known as relative strength, or in AAPL's case, the lack of it. We believe it is the single most important technical indication of where a stock is headed. Money going into tech, for one reason or another, is not being put into AAPL. It is very possible that the real reasons behind this have yet to surface. The action of this chart suggests more pain ahead for AAPL. When the current rally fizzles, we think that AAPL could very well break support and head for a new, lower "box" (trading range).
It would be our inclination to remain long the indexes and simultaneously short AAPL. We cannot short individual names, so instead we are currently at the mercy of the indexes, with a 30% long position and little to hedge it. Our only defense against another leg down in the market is that we're sitting on two-thirds cash. There is a saying that as goes January, so goes the year. It should be an interesting month.

42 comments:

Anonymous said...

Seems like a lot of talk about Steve Job's health lately. Think insiders know something we don't?

Anonymous said...

It's about time to start talking investing on this blog! I'm a hurt long from LDK board. I believe LDK is about to break out also. Any indication of it?

Anonymous said...

Hey Snot,
What's your opinion on stocks that are trading below the company's net cash value and they are turning a profit? You talk about the 4 stages of a stock's life, but there must be instances where you must buy hand over fist even if when we are in the mist of a bear market.

I think technicals only matter until an arbitrage opportunity presents itself.

Anonymous said...

Agree!

1. He has never talked about FA, he even don't know what is stock !

2. He violated # 1 rule.

3. He only know four TA skills: channel, ascending triangle, descending triangle, and 4 stages.

4. He is still so proud of himself although he is a loser recently. ( many stocks have been up 2-3 times since November,2008, such as drys, nm, jrcc.)

Anonymous said...

Damn Me-No-Speakee-Anon your first two "reasons" are gibberish to those of us that know how to speak the English language, the third is a compliment and your 4th is ridiculous. I was looking at DRYS at 16 and posted a question to Snot and he said don't bother it's still going lower.

Next Me-No-Speakee-Anon you're going to tell us that YOU bought DRYS right at 3.04 and hung on until today and sold at 12.77, right?

LOLOLOL!!! Quit showing the rest of the world how ignorant and angry you are. You belong on the LDK Yahoo message board.

Snotwheel said...

Icon, from the last post...
Neither the Dow nor LDK has taken out resistance yet. For the Dow, it's 9000 and for LDK its 15.5.
You'd need a decisive break of either to call it a break out.

Kay said...

On AAPL, the weakness is attributable to a new wave of speculation regarding Steve Jobs' health status, since he has just delegated the annual State of the Company speech (I can't remember what that's called, rather than doing it himself as he normally would.) My understanding is that AAPL has suffered significant downturns in value anytime Steve Jobs health has become suspect in recent years. There was a big article out just a few days ago about this.

The thing I am totally flabbergasted over today is that Wall Street has somehow decided to completely ignore the hideous ISM Manufacturing Report that came out this morning. To see the Dow up 200 points and testing 9000 in the face of that kind of economic news is beyond comprehension.

Sort of like a joyride that might end in a drunken crash with fatalities!! Go figure!
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://anasdaq.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=nasdaq

Happy New Year!!

Agr8gem57

Snotwheel said...

Digestivo, AAPL's chart is telling us something. It may be exactly what you said. If insiders know something, you can bet they've leaked it to the big boys also. No one is buying AAPL... something is fishy.
The massive sell-off in the market the days before Sept 11, 2001 has never been fully explained either. Sometime soon, us lemmings will know what's keeping the smart money out of AAPL.

Snotwheel said...

To both Anons, we understand fundamental analysis, but we chose to focus on basic TA because it is more influencial on a stock's price than company performance.
During a bear market, we avoid all individual stocks regardless of fundamentals/value. During bull markets, it factors in, but is still second to basic TA. Even during bulls, solid fundamentals are in the chart, so you don't have to kill yourself trying to figure them out for yourself based on 5% of the information that your opponents have.

Snotwheel said...

Thanks Sick Of The Me No Speakee The English Anons for saying what we thought when we read that post!
I'm sure all of the Anons caught the very bottom of DRYS and JRCC and have quadrupled their portfolios over the past few weeks. At this rate, they'll be the first to have $100B accounts, and will do it by 2011!

Snotwheel said...

Kay, it's amazing that one person can be that important to a company of that size, huh?
We're hoping (as we've been incorrectly for months) that this rally holds and brings us back at least to the 100dma (Dow 9600 or so) before crashing and burning.
The 200dma is at 10900.

Anonymous said...

"Sick Of The Me No Speakee The English Anons said...
Damn Me-No-Speakee-Anon your first two "reasons" are gibberish to those of us that know how to speak the English language, the third is a compliment and your 4th is ridiculous. I was looking at DRYS at 16 and posted a question to Snot and he said don't bother it's still going lower.

Next Me-No-Speakee-Anon you're going to tell us that YOU bought DRYS right at 3.04 and hung on until today and sold at 12.77, right?

LOLOLOL!!! Quit showing the rest of the world how ignorant and angry you are. You belong on the LDK Yahoo message board.
"

Snot:

1. Who is soooooooo angry ? of course, the loser !!!! Dow has been up 1500 points since November 21, 2008, however, How much money did you make? ( You bought qid and smn round $96 ) YOU LOST BOTH LONG AND SHORT !!!!!!!!!!
2.You posted lots of dead wrong information (direction) on this blog.(please check out AAPL) when other posters rebutted you with very hard evidence, you used another ID to assault them without any evidence.

3. Any new small investors can study your 4 TA skills in 10 minutes, it's so easy to become a "good trader"

4. If you posted all information which posted here to Yahoo message board, 90% posters would rebutted you and you would lost all your face. That's why you want to set up the blog, right?

5. I really don't want to point out your faults (see above post) many times because I know you are a stubborn person. however, you posted the wrong information repeatedly, such as today you bull SPY and bear AAPL. if some your fans short aapl according to your post, they will lose $5.5 per share right now.

6. Anyone will make a mistake in this market, BUT YOU MADE LOTS OF MISTAKE AND ALWAYS HURT YOUR FANS RECENTLY. that's why I wanted to post the above opinion, I don't care who you are !!!!!!

7 This is not an online English class.

Anonymous said...

Snot slamming anons:
Nobody's perfect, but evidentally you are much closer than the rest of us. You are more than welcome to tip-toe over to another board or blog and stay there; just don't let the door hit on the way out. So long as you cling to your anonymity, your credibility tends towards zero as far as I'm concerned. If you don't think this blog helpful to you, then go away.

On the trading side of things, I'm thinking of buying another slug of inverse ETF's in the next couple of days. The news simply doesn't correspond at all to today's mini rally. A return to descending averages? Sure, but I think a brutal fall is in store.

devblog said...

To anonymous slamming Snot. I respect your right to challenge Snotwheel. However, please bear in mind that his is simply a free publicly accessible blog with the implicit caveat emptor "you get what you pay for". So people are free to read or not read, accept or not accept, Snot's views as they see fit. I don't see Snot ramming his opinions down anyone's throat. Did you happen to lose money following Snot's recommendations? Then shame on YOU for not doing your own due diligence and taking responsibility for your own decisions. Anyone who BLINDLY follows a guru deserves whatever they get (as you might suspect I am not exactly brimming with sympathy for Madoff's victims who blindly followed him). In any case, I for one appreciate Snot's postings, as well as his analysis of the markets and charts, although I have never bought or sold on his recommendation. Let me say again, it's fair game to disagree with Snot, and I suspect, if done so with logical reasoning and respectful and clear presentation, would engender a reciprocal and similar considered response on his part (as well as other readers). Slamming him in a such a seeming hysterical fashion greatly diminishes your case, however valid it might be. At the end of the day, you have the right to simply not read his blog. Respectfully yours.

Conorsh said...

Sorry, Have to step in here. This foolish anon is just one of the kids from the LDK board and is not looking for a logical argument. Ignore him and he will go away.

On the markets i'm thinking that this run might go a little further than we (ie the board) expect. A lot of the recent drop was an extraordinary event brought on by forced selling and i think the recent run up has been gradual enough that it may not fail as quickly as some expect.
Long term of course i believe that the US will only be saved by selling alaska to the Arabs for $5Trillion, but in the meantime I'm still 100% long for the moment

Anonymous said...

I've learned a lot more from Snot's blog than just "buy this" or "sell that". The more important lesson has been patience. And resisting the urge to day trade in and out of positions on every little gyration. That's the road to making wealth, not just a little "scalp" here and there.

As far as the Anons who claim to day trade perfectly every day every stock every trade my questions to you are: Why are you here? Why do you need to troll stock blogs if you are already perfect? And if you are as perfect as you claim to be then why aren't you living on your own private Carribean island?

Because you are nothing but a sidelines wannabe "reporter". You see everything in hindsight. From the sidelines. You glance at a stock in the morning, don't do anything about it, then in the afternoon you "report" to us that "I saw XYZ at 5 and it went to 10 so I'm great!" Although in this example you used DRYS, NM and JRCC. Where was your post when these were at bottom telling us to buy??

And did everyone notice that this Anon didn't claim to have bought or sold DRYS or JRCC or NM...he just "reported" these stocks to us from the sidelines. Where he lives as a wannabe.

Thanks Anon, and don't let the door hit you on the way out. You've lost face so you must disappear like TeenyTinyWeenieBoy.

More good riddance.

Anonymous said...

Interesting that you mentioned AAPL. What I did on the last day of the last year in afterhours was to sell most of my winning positions, GE and USO (except LDK) to balance my loss for tax purposes, and bought AAPL using the proceeds (since it was "cheap" in afterhours due to Steve Jobs rumor. Even after taking all the profits, my loss this year is still way more than the 3k limit.

So far so good on AAPL (up 5%). It looks for me that AAPL should at least test the 50-day which is at 94. Stocks tend to sit right on a key moving average, be it 20-, 50- or 100, before known key events to suggest indecision. In this case it is the Macworld next week, and earnings on Jan. 20.

Also, AAPL was able to close above 90, suggesting a possible new trading range to 90-100, which bracket the flat 50-day moving average.

I appreciate criticizm on my thoughts about AAPL as I have some real money in it now.

Anonymous said...

Three cheers for the post at 9:19. Couldn't have said it better myself. Of all the attributes of a trader I'd have to say that patience ranks first; at least that's the lesson I'm learning over the past couple of years. All the evidence points to the fact that over 95% of day traders loose their shirts. Not a good track record.
Yesterday I said that I was thinking of buying more inverse ETF's in the next few days. Now I'm not so sure. It seems that right now, bad news be damned, the market wants to go back up. A few months ago, even a whiff of bad news sent the markets reeling. So, Conorsh, any idea on how much longer this correction may last? Is this the euphoria phase that sucks in investors before the next crunch?
Lightsource:
Apple was the very first stock that I bought, so it has that 'first time' feel, so to speak, about it. So, I follow its meanderings closely. My two bits is that if ever there was a stock that acted like a cult, this is it. It is the Meth of the stock world. Normal rules don't apply as much. This tends to make it less predictable than, say, RIMM or MOT. When the uncertainty in the markets settles down, this will be one of the first stocks that I will buy, but not 'till then.

Anonymous said...

SBbuilder, if "they" want the market to go up, to suck in investors as you suggest, the logical thing they would do is to pump up the most visible "four horse men" to paint a bullish picture. Most investors (me included) do not have time to watch the market. They go over the SPY, AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, FSLR over the weekend to decide to buy or sell next week. For example, I now see FSLR, to leadership stock for solars, doing well, so I will probably hold LDK next week.

Thanks for the cautious note. I'll probably sell half of AAPL at 94 if it gets there. Right now I think below 88, I will be out.

Anonymous said...

"Go Away Broken English Sidelines Reporter Wannabe Anons said...
I've learned a lot more from Snot's blog than just "buy this" or "sell that". The more important lesson has been patience. And resisting the urge to day trade in and out of positions on every little gyration. That's the road to making wealth, not just a little "scalp" here and there.

As far as the Anons who claim to day trade perfectly every day every stock every trade my questions to you are: Why are you here? Why do you need to troll stock blogs if you are already perfect? And if you are as perfect as you claim to be then why aren't you living on your own private Carribean island?

Because you are nothing but a sidelines wannabe "reporter". You see everything in hindsight. From the sidelines. You glance at a stock in the morning, don't do anything about it, then in the afternoon you "report" to us that "I saw XYZ at 5 and it went to 10 so I'm great!" Although in this example you used DRYS, NM and JRCC. Where was your post when these were at bottom telling us to buy??

And did everyone notice that this Anon didn't claim to have bought or sold DRYS or JRCC or NM...he just "reported" these stocks to us from the sidelines. Where he lives as a wannabe.

Thanks Anon, and don't let the door hit you on the way out. You've lost face so you must disappear like TeenyTinyWeenieBoy.

More good riddance."

----------------

Snot,

Because you lacked the stock market knowledge, you assaulted the rebutter's name, language, and example( I have never said I bought drys, nm, and jrcc, I just used them as an example to compare with your loss, you always say: don't buy single stock. HOW BAD YOU ARE !) ok, let me rebute you: Your action like your name, Snot, a despicable person.( PLEASE NOTE: FROM FIRST TO LAST SNOT ASSAULTED REBUTTERS' NAME MANY TIMES, SUCH AS SMALL BOY,TeenyTinyWeenieBoy, THAT'S WHY MANY POSTERS USED THEIR ANONS. BTW.
IF SOMEONE WANT TO ACT AS SNOTS' DOG, PLEASE GO ON )

Finally most of posters know who lost face on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Again, according to your logic, You shorted AAPL yesterday, right? You shorted POT around $48.5, right? you shorted AGU around $24, right ? How bad logic you are !!!

Anonymous said...

Thank you for proving my point Microscopic Weenie Boy Anon- that you are nothing but a sidelines "reporter" wannabe. Nice of you to admit that in your "rebute" post.

Do your massive losses make you such an angry little man? I hope you don't have a family. Poor things if they have to deal with your anger issues on a daily basis.

You might want to pick up an English language dictionary and look up the word "rebut" though because you obviously don't know the meaning. (Or how to spell it for that matter).

Now go make your own blog and go away from this one. You can call it the "Me No Speakee English Reporting On What Already Happened But Never Offering Anything Ahead Of Time" blog. Dot com.

LOLOLOLOL!!!!

Anonymous said...

Hey Snot,

I personally would like to thank you for the TA you are providing. I joined this site when you predicted that the AG stocks are worth 14c. Your analysis was posted in Yahoo! and that's how I discovered your site.
The 4 stages, triangles, horizontal support/resistance has improved my trading a lot and above all most of the stress I used to experience is gone. If I enter a bad trade, I just kill it instantly.
Also a book from Stan Weinstein , profiting in Bull and Bear Markets,has been helpful a lot.
So thank you very much.

LeBlanc

Snotwheel said...

Ignore is the only thing that works for people with such short term thinking.
AAPL can bounce around within its triangle as much as it wants. It's only a decisive break of resistance or support that matters here, and we haven't seen either yet. We're holding long ETF's with no intention of letting any go just yet. If we are just being suckered into another major leg down, then the 2/3rds cash position we have will purchase far more than 66% of our eventual long holdings, as we'll be able to get in much cheaper. We just don't know any better way to handle a bear market. It's still way too early to bet on individual names.

Anonymous said...

"Poor Sad Little Microscopic Weenie Boy Anon Is Comically Angry Now said...
Thank you for proving my point Microscopic Weenie Boy Anon- that you are nothing but a sidelines "reporter" wannabe. Nice of you to admit that in your "rebute" post.

Do your massive losses make you such an angry little man? I hope you don't have a family. Poor things if they have to deal with your anger issues on a daily basis.

You might want to pick up an English language dictionary and look up the word "rebut" though because you obviously don't know the meaning. (Or how to spell it for that matter).

Now go make your own blog and go away from this one. You can call it the "Me No Speakee English Reporting On What Already Happened But Never Offering Anything Ahead Of Time" blog. Dot com.

LOLOLOLOL!!!!"
----------------


TO ALL POSTERS:

This is bigboy8882008, I came back and changed my ID to BEATSNOT, Sorry, I have no way and bother other posters.


Snot ,

1. The more you posted this kind of posting, the more you will lose face on this blog. Is the blog which students want to learn English ? May I aske you a question ? How many languages do you know? only English ? it’s too bad !

2. You said: “Do your massive losses make you such an angry little man? I hope you don't have a family. Poor things if they have to deal with your anger issues on a daily basis.” If I say:” I hope you have never had family because your action has already approved that you were a despicable person” you must be very happy, right? So I return the sentences to you.

Unlike you, sometimes you acted as gentleman by Snotwheel; sometimes you acted as a despicable person to assault the rebutters by other IDs, my personality is much better than you !! if I was a rude person I would rebutted you, sbbuilder, Conorsh, and devblog at once ( I reserve the right for the other three people )

It’s possible that Snotwheel is a small group( 2-3 people) it runs like paid bashers’ group.

My postings which I rebutted you is logic, clear, and powerful because

1. It is rebuttal article with very hard evidence.
2. You assaulted me many times, ( please see below evidence) I have endured around 1 month even I was very angry.
3. I posted the explanation before:” My native language is not English, Maybe some grammar and spelling are wrong, and some sentences are too open, sorry about that.”
4. I learned Japanese before I was enrolled by law school in my mother country. I hate despicable person because of my legal background.

First of all

When I came to this blog, I sincerely wanted to support the blog like other posters. I posted some good information and good stocks on the blog, even I reminded you several times:” don’t make second mistake” “ 7500 is 100% bottom in 2008” when you bought QID at $96. I really wanted to help someone and support this blog at that time, also I said:” Btw thank you snot! you provided the blog and some good strategy.” however, after more and more posters asked me some questions and admired me, you were so angry and used other IDs to assault me with very rude way.

( To all posters. Can you find any posting which snot appreciated me on the blog ? never ! only assaulted me.)

After I posted:” I plan to leave this blog for personal reasons” you got a last chance which assaulted me. (please see last
evidence )

Second

Snot assaulted me many times, the evidence is as follows:

Anonymous said...
DIG is going break down decending triangle. This is dead wish for you Small Boy!
December 5, 2008 10:31 AM

Anonymous said...
Small Boy! Seem likes you have a lots of dry power to average down the down trend sectors, AG, oil and gas! Do you know POT broke the last major support $50.
December 5, 2008 1:41 PM

mediumboy said...
Icon, did you take a loss on FAZ or are you sitting on a 10 pt loss right now?

Every time I get tempted that things goes down more than I thought possible and I keep getting scared off.
December 5, 2008 3:32 PM

tinyboy said...

AP Interview: OPEC head predicts output cuts By ALFRED de MONTESQUIOU, AP

(---------------)

December 7, 2008 9:52 AM


TeenyTinyWeenyBoy said...

bigboy8882008 & seeer- will you two please get each other's email and go back and forth in private from now on? It's becoming annoying. This blog is not your personal forum.

Thank you.


December 13, 2008 9:30 AM

Kenny From Survivor Still Lurks said...
(---------------------------)
I totally agree with Conorsh. That bigboy8882008 has been reporting his trades just like Madoff!!! LOLOL!!! And any of you who actually think you'll make money following that person's "advice" will end up exactly how Madoff's sheep ended up- broke.

If bigboy is SOOOOOO great then let him start his own blog and everyone who wants can go follow. All he's been doing is clogging this comments section up so good riddance! I especially liked it when he said on here "I don't tell all trades on blog- some two good to share with you" basically saying he'll tell you what he wants and screw you on the rest.

Good luck and goodbye

TeenyTinyWeenyBoy!

December 18, 2008 7:42 AM

------------------


Let's see how Conorsh said

" Conorsh said...
Wow, what did i miss with everyone asking bigboy to keep emailing them? Anybody can say i bought X this morning and sold it for 30% gain.. Easy to call after the event.
I notice that he dosent call any losing trades either? anyone notice that? Sorry, but no one wins them all...

Now if he was doing as snot does and calling them in advance i'd be much more impressed...
December 18, 2008 1:13 AM "

Anon rebutted conorsh for me as follows:

"Anonymous said...
conorsh, why don't you impress us all and just disappear. you are like that little piece of manure floating in a bucket of fresh cow milk.
December 18, 2008 6:31 AM "


Third:

Let me rebut last assault.

All posters knew except the blind persons I bought the stocks and held them at least 1-15 days. then I would posted:” I just sold XXX stocks” in another word I recommended the stocks at the beginning, then let the stock market to test it at lest 1-15 days, and approved I was wrong or right. The evidence is as follows:

bigboy8882008 said...
I bought some pot's shares and add some shares for uso.

I think dow will be green at 4:00pm.
December 5, 2008 1:11 PM

bigboy8882008 said...
I just sold 1/4 shares for pot. if dow is up 100-150 points, I will sell another 1/4 for pot.
December 10, 2008 3:16 PM

bigboy8882008 said...
Dow is up 100 points and sold another 1/4. I made 42% in 4trading days. In fact pot is still very strong.
December 10, 2008 4:04 PM

bigboy8882008 said...
I bought a few shares about gss, sina, and bidu, however, maybe too late for you about gss.
December 11, 2008 10:41 AM

Anonymous said...
Bidboy,
Are you still holding your BIDU?
December 12, 2008 11:00 AM

bigboy8882008 said...
seeer,
(-----------------------------)

Please understand me!

Anon, I am still holding Bidu.

December 12, 2008 12:34 PM


Anonymous said...

bigboy,

great call on bidu.

Goldman Sachs upgraded Baidu.com Inc (BIDU.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) to "conviction buy" from "neutral" and said the top Chinese Internet search company was set to benefit from the growth in paid search in China.

thebat
December 16, 2008 8:03 AM

bigboy8882008 said...
I just sold bidu, sina and cx. bought some shares for ldk in the morning


December 17, 2008 12:19 PM

Do I need to provide more evidence ? it’s enough. if blind persons still don’t believe it, please check my postings by yourself.

If I had the ability to choose the good stocks to post here and don't post bad stocks here, I would still make lots of money. Why ? it's very simple, I only bought the stocks which I posted here. So your last assault is unreasonable.

Finally

Only Snot assaulted me for the following reasons:

1. He bought SMN ( shorted DIG, POT, and AGU ) while I bought DIG and POT at the same time. So he was angry.
2. Many posters asked me lots of questions, they almost forgot Snot at that time. so he was angry.
3. Nobody except Snot would assaulted my ID (or name) even they were different opinion from me. also I have never met the same problem on Yahoo message board.
4. According to the tone of the article, many posters will know Snot is only the poster.


Conclusion:


TO ALL POSTERS: I sincerely wanted to support the blog, however, due to Snot was a narrow-minded person, he assaulted me many times by despicable and rude way. If you were I , would you accept his rude way ? would you rebut him as a man ? please answer my question in your mind !

Now Snot not only lost money but he lost his credit on the blog, Even he is the owner of the blog. If he always posts wrong information ( it bothers and confuses you ) and assaults another good one, finally who will care him ? who will support his blog ? Small investors only want to make money, the more, the better, also there are lots of good information on many financial message board. Now most of posters know he is ( a) despicable person and lack stock market knowledge, such as his ridiculous hedge strategy !

Anonymous said...

Good grief. I'm gone on vacation for a few days and this blog has turned into an LDK lookalike board.

SNOT, I'm still sticking with index or sector ETFs on the whole, as per your advice. I think that is good advice. A friend of mine invested in DOW recently and when the Kuwait deal fell through, WHAM, he got hit with a 20% downturn in moments. Ouch. Trading in and out of DIG, LTL, DDM, RXL and UGE has helped my portfolio over the past month or so, even though my timing always seems to be 1 day or more off on the top or the bottom of each fluctuation, but your advice to layer in and out by thirds has helped.

For a single stock, though, I'm layering in to AIG on the advice of my elderly dad who predicts it will go up 95% in the next 12 months based on some reports he has read. He has been in the insurance business for over 50 years and been investing longer than probably most posters on this blog have been alive. What do you think?

Joe

Conorsh said...

Joe, you may make money on AIG, but its a gamble, not an investment. The business is insolvent and then it took huge loans form the govt to survive, only to need additional loans within a few weeks. They are blowing cash like water and they are in no position to repay those loans whatsoever. They are not just a good business unfairly beat down, but a genuinely screwed business selling insurance at a time when the whole town is burning down.

All respect to your dad, but a lifetime in insurance is probably giving him a biased view. Lifers in citygroup probably cannot understand how it was worth $60 a year ago and $4 last week. No doubt its a great buy now. The same would go for detroit car workers, or Dell Employees in Texas or even homeowners everywhere probably think property is great value right now.

Anonymous said...

BeatenBySnot, or LittlePenisBoy8882008, or whatever you want to call yourself-

PLEASE JUST GO AWAY ALREADY!!

No one cares about your angry, incoherent rants.

PS- You are now also a LIAR because you said you'd leave this blog and you haven't.

So go make your own blog. And go away. You will not be missed.

Anonymous said...

I think both of you should go away and get a life.

Iconoclast421 said...

It looks like cointelpro is just one more thing that has been outsourced to china...

Anonymous said...

Conorsh, thanks for your thoughts. BTW, insurance business for my dad is GREAT. Sales are up. He is in life and investment insurance. He got out of auto, property and casualty about 40 years ago. He says lots of insurance companies are buying banks so that they can get their fingers on TARP money. Insurance companies are "old money" and if managed well, they know how to do well over the long haul. Instead of being leveraged 30 or 40 times on borrowed money, many of them are making money on premiums money, as long as they didn't put it in the wrong places, of course. Currently my stake in AIG is about 2% of my portfolio. Thanks again for the caution.

For the other posters, don't you think the pissing and spitting contest is getting old? Old Chinese proverb say, "If you spit into the wind, you get spit on your own face."

Joe

Anonymous said...

My god ! AAPL is already up $3 in premarket.

Snot=loser, short more or cover it ?

It's so easy to trade the stocks,
When snot says it's time to short some stocks, it's time to buy. how good that has worked.

Anonymous said...

If a company like AAPL's share price is so tied into the health of one man I wouldn't touch that with a 10 foot pole.

Besides, do you people really believe this press release?

Caveat emptor.

Anonymous said...

Aapl has been up more than $9 since Snots' posting, I am laughing, the market always punishs bad persons,

Thanks God !

Anonymous said...

Thanks, "sidelines reporter wannabe" for reporting what we already know. I noticed you didn't claim to have bought AAPL, nor do you have a post filed that said to buy AAPL- you're just "reporting".

By the way I saw AOL at 0.50 cents and then I saw it at $100.00!

There, now I'm just like you!!! I'm a "reporter" too!

Anonymous said...

Snot,

Could you provide more bearish stocks ? I want to switch WLT's money to yours, because WLT was up around 30% in two trading days( to other posters: please check out Yahoo message board )

I should be very grateful if you will " kindly grant me " a reply at your earliest convenience.

Anonymous said...

I really wish this loser 'reporter' would go away. Is there any way to block his IP?

If possible PLEASE do it!

RL

Anonymous said...

Blind Anon:(RL)

Who is a loser ? You are suitable a snots' dog. You don't know what is a sense of justice !

Snotwheel said...

Beatsnot,
Check out BCSI as a short. It's in a long term downtrend and its recent rally has been weak.
It's one of Gary's shorts, and perhaps one of his most profitable positions thus far. We feel that when the market does finally start to trend lower again, BCSI could continue down to below $5.

Anonymous said...

Wow, check out LDK. It's getting a beating in AH. Sold at 14.20 last friday. I was hitting myself in the head today, but I am glad I sold.

Anyone think it will hit $9 again? Honest opinions! Snot?

j

Anonymous said...

pretty much since ldk has been traded on the nyse, any chance ws gets to beat it down it does so with a vengeance. until proven otherwise, i don't see why this time will be any different.

coincidence that ldk touched its 50dma today and is/will be getting rejected hard? i will say that looking at ldk chart, if it ever does break its 50dma it shoots up pretty good, albeit for only a while before it gets beat down again.

if i were to guess, i'd say new lows are coming for ldk.

RL

Anonymous said...

I sold AAPL in premarket. Added a bit more LDK in after hours today. LDK will be down tomorrow but I think traders will "buy the dips", as they have been doing lately. I did for AAPL and was able to profit from it.