Click chart to enlargeThe chart above is BRK.A, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway A. While the market itself is only just breaking its October lows now, Buffet's funds are now doing far worse. Yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway fell 12.5% compared to the market's 4.8%.
Both Berk A and Berk B are down 45% over the past 12 months. We're not picking on Buffett, just trying to put things in perspective. Actually, Buffett is outperforming most of his peers.
45 comments:
Anyone care to share your strategy today?
Stay in CASH. We are overSOLD but who know I can see DOW 6000 before it head higher. NO LONG and SHORT...
Just bought more SSO
Damn,
Should have stayed short.
Got in too early.
Oh well,
I will have to add more at this point.
maybe at the end of the day.
Looking at the charts I think we are geting very close for a rally.
The sense of fear will develop going into the weekend for the Short positions with their 52/week all time high ETF's.
:-)
take a look at JPM.
Snot,
Why you buy so early! Market can not rebound without financial... and enery market...
On the other side NCC is hanging on pretty well considering the financials are getting slammed.
I freaked out and sold today almost at the bottom. I'm about to shoot myself as I've almost lost everything! Now my question is: Rebuy or hold off!!!!!!
You can say that pretty much LDK has destroyed all my investments!
Dow will be up 400-500 points?
Do you agree?
I'm sorry for your loss but Why are you selling at this levels while others are buying ?
Margin call?
yes, we are headed down in the long run but I think we are heading higher before we go lower.
As i type DOW is already turned green.
if 80% investors buy or cover today, what's next?
When we have this news:
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration called on Congress to break its deadlock on a plan to bail out the Big Three automakers, saying a Republican measure would pass if put to a vote.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has refused to set aside time today to debate the proposal by Senator Kit Bond, a Missouri Republican. Reid said Bond's plan hasn't been put in writing and the House of Representatives is about to adjourn.
And this news:
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, probably has weeks rather than months left before it runs out of cash without federal aid, said Jerome York, an adviser to billionaire Kirk Kerkorian and former GM board member.
Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner ``all but said'' at congressional hearings in the past two days that GM can't continue to operate until a new U.S. administration takes over in January, York said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
I see actions during the weekend.
Off topic:
Take a look at ABK.
Following the strategy I laid out this morning and yesterday, I'm currently up 20% today. In addition to BGU @ 26, I also picked up Ford at 1.05. I couldnt resist buying Ford at near $1 knowing a bailout was coming. That was the quickest 70% I ever made. I'm holding some in hopes it will go back above $2.
Here is a fresh intraday SPX chart.
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/SPXintraday11-20.jpg
I added 2 blue dots indicating the two most likely spots we'll end the week at. Since I do not have any educated guess as to which one will win, I'm moving to the sidelines until market close friday.
Wow, STP collapsed after breaking support. Down to $6 from $10 just 2 days ago... ouch!
I am about to loose everything as I am on margin. Any idea we will bounce or SELL NOW?
Snot,
You are nothing if not consistent. Buying long SSO today escapes me, though I know your thinking. Are you this disciplined outside of the investing world?
Something bothering me, though. A few posts ago you said the 'cat is out of the bag' regarding the true intrinsic value of stocks. 14 cents and all that. Yesterday you more or less called the bottom of the DOW around 7000. So which one is it? Which peg are you going to hang your hat on?
hk22 and icon, you guys are in a special league all to yourselves. Great reads. icon, I would like to follow further your charts re SPX. Anybody who can reasonably predict a near term stock event has got to be good. hk22, aren't inverse ETF's cool? This market is all about momentum, and playing the downward trend is so much easier than anything else.
Last, can a stock like F, which today has seen nearly a 60% range, be trading with even a modicom of sanity?
Really last, does anyone feel comfortable publishing their YTD return? Snot keeps a running tally, as does Gary now, and a couple of others have too. Has this blog materially helped those who are actively investing, I guess is where I'm going with this. I can say unquestionably that it has helped me. As for me, I'm up 8.1% now.
Who trades for a living here?
A year ago January, I met with the head of a highly recommended investing firm in order to put together a portfolio. They recommended nine stocks and funds. I didn't do anything for three months, then decided to go it alone because I just didn't like the stuff they chose. If I had bought that porfolio, today it would be worth only 53%. Anybody care for their name and number?
Yes! Please post here!
sbbuilder,
You're doing great! Wish we could join in all the fun, but we cannot short individual stocks because we trade retirement accounts.
It's disappointing and frustrating because we see so many opportunities on the short side. Just the other day, we mentioned TSL as a short at $10, and STP as a short at $10. Both are about $6 now, less than a week later.
We're going to open a new account in which we can short, but it will not have much capital. We'll keep our longs in the retirement account for the long term, and start keeping track of our new portfolio on this blog so we are on a level playing field with everyone else, including hedge funds. It just isn't fair (boo hoo) that we know Citi made a great short a year ago at $30 and we're not be able to capitalize on it. Shorting individual stocks in this market is the best way to profit. Why we're working against the broader trend? Simply because with retirement accounts, the overall focus is very long term.
We'll try to get our new account up and running by January 1st, so we can track our performance for the full year. With our general belief that all stocks eventually go to 14 cents, it only makes sense that we should be short-focused traders.
Just got filled on more SSO @ 20.00 and DXO @ 3.00.
Yikes! Never thought I'd see either if these this low. This is really getting to be exhausting. What is this? 26 out of the last 28 days have been down days?
I'm not afraid to say that ive been devastated this year, but fortunatly still afloat.
I made a lot from puts on the banks, mainly AIG and CITI but i closed Citi to early at 12.. I cant believe that it went straight to 5 without so much as a break..
Unfortunatly i put the cash into solars and well, you can see what s happened to them.. Overall i'm down a solid 65%. Last week i was nearly at breakeven.. Make you laugh.
On the plus side i took enough out last year to pay off my mortagge and enough out from Citi last month to pay half an X5 so at least if it all goes i'll have taken some profits..
Its hard to watch 65% disappear in a week though..
On the optioins snot, i have absolutly no idea. Overall that would suggest manipulation and i dont subscribe to the concept.. These days who knows though..
Holy Cow! Thar she blowsssssss! S&P broke support 771, Dow to the crapper too!
Agr8gem57
I wish I would have gone short instead of pulling out completely. Like I said, a break of an uptrending rsi resistance line on the VIX is the most bearish signal I know. It pretty much overrides everything else.
Is this a buy and hold? Are we going down more tomorrow??????
I have no clue? anyone know really quick?
really quick? I think we rally to close at above 763, so as to keep my charts intact!
No one can know.
50/50 shot at best..
People talk about capitulation, but really there is always another level to go. Look at Citi at $5.
By all accounts surely the bottom? Then you consider that it still has $25bn in market cap to go. Why woudl it stop here instead of $20Bn, $15Bn $2Bn etc... No reason at all to think any stock would be at a bottom just because its number looks low compared to last years number. As snot says the only true bottom is zero..
This is getting depressing. At Dow 4,000, do we start to ration food and water like Kay's article suggested?
This was fun.
I loaded on UYG and NCC and opened one postion on UYM at 8.83..
Check this out:
8.83 - 11.39
Today's Range
Its like hitting the jackpot :-)
regarding my performance I think counting todays loss I'm about +18%profit.
sbbuilder.
yeah,, Gotta love those reverse ETF's, they are just too expensive right now.
I like bargains.
I usually stay out if they get expensive and buy them back when they get cheaper.
But this time I went long thinking that a rebound is in the horizont.
Enough for a 20% profit :-)
Everything goes in cycles, simple physic laws.
Chances are If they go down tomorrow..I'll buy more.
At the end of the day :-)
As I said , being short over the weekend ought to be scary.
Not good, esp more bad news expected 4Q 08 and 1Q 09. We're doomed. Worst xmas ever for many.
Got to hit the bottom to rebuild.
Anatomy of an SPX breakdown:
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/SPXbreakdown.jpg
My best guess is now a bounce at SPX 700. We might overshoot that mark to the downside, and then close there.
So depress now! Don't know where is bottom is? This market is killing me...Can't average down forever! I think I have to go and beg for food just like in 1929...
Here is a chart of a few solars that hopefully will help illustrate my rules better:
http://i468.photobucket.com/albums/rr44/iconoclast421/TAN-STP-TSL.jpg
I told you yesterday: "Based on the Darvas method the Nasdaq and the S&P500 is in a new trading range, in a new "box". The old support now acting as a resistance."
These resistances are ~1420-1430 on the Nasdaq and ~820-830 on the S&P500.
I just trading what I see, not what I think. Yesterday I bought some QID.
anon, whats the range of the resistances/supports in this new trading box?
Anon: the old supports are now the new resistances, see above.
Btw, is anybody bullish here? If yes then tell me something:
1. where are the good news?
2. where are the good technicals?
nowhere and nowhere...
Oh, and the supports.
Right now there is no support until we see a reversal.
You could see the longterm charts and you will find a lots of supports back in the 90's, but these are very old supports. Older support, weaker support.
If the big 3 go chapter 11 and break union contracts, will we have riots in the streets?
Will Uncle Ben gives us an emergency rate cut tomorrow so that along with covering before the weekend and op-ex, we can have one good up day before another twenty down days?
Will I stupidly hold on to my few longs and watch them dwindle my holdings, even if it is at a slower rate than the indexes due to my cash and bonds?
Will I say tomorrow what I have said for the last month: "It can't go any lower. It is too low for me to short now. If I short, the market will rally."
Will I get no response tomorrow from all the resumes I have sent out just like I've gotten for the past two weeks?
First,
Anons, can you sign in the bottom of your post who you are if you are not willing to register, it would be much easier for everybodyto communicate. Thanks.
"Btw, is anybody bullish here? If yes then tell me something:
1. where are the good news?
2. where are the good technicals?
nowhere and nowhere..."
-Good news might come over the weekend.
-Big 3 can't go chapter 11.
Shorts need to cover.
Reverse ETF's are skyrocketing. That would be techinically impossible and can't last forever.
You saw it yourself today that the moment that there was news for a big3 bail out the market soared.
Good news will come when nobody is expecting it.
I love to be short but the risk/reward ratio it is not worth it.
Best senario is to stay on the sidelines.
next week is going to be interesting.
hk22: "there was news for a big3 bail out the market soared"
that was the backtest of the old supports, see the hourly charts.
noname :)
Hi Snot,
Its outright crazy the way market is behaving. Look at the GAP results after the close today. They beat on the EPS and re-affirmed their full year estimates of around $1.35/share. They are trading at less than $10. Even if they miss estimates and earn $1.20, they are trading at less than 8 times their next year earnings. They are still growing at more than 15%. God knows when this is going to end.
AK
Guess what folks:
Time to load up with oil:
It’s official, Goldman capitulates on oil
Goldman’s latest commodities note is out, and this is all you need to know:
Closing our oil trading recommendations
Although we have emphasized in the past few weeks that continued weak oil demand exacerbated by constrained credit conditions will contribute to soften near-term fundamentals keeping WTI prices, timespreads and gasoline cracks under pressure, we have left our oil trading recommendations open, expecting that high volatility would provide a better exit point to our trades. The volatility in the past few weeks has mostly been to the downside and the pressure on the oil complex has increased. In the near term, we do not expect significant upside potential and as a consequence we are closing all of our oil trading recommendations.
Good call HK22. BP COP DXO XOM CHK HAL RIG SLB take your pick.
hk22: don't fight with the trend. Do you really want to give your money to them? Don't listen to the news or anybody else. Oil is now consolidating, but the main trend is still down. Take a long position in a downtrend = gambling.
noname :)
hk22
Check out this article on GM's board. They don't want to go the chapter 11 route, the route I mentioned but you said they can't take. Question, though, is will they be forced to take that route.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081122/gm_board_bankruptcy.html
Signed,
Anonymous
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