________-77.6%__-26.3%___-54.6%__-94.8%___+2.4%_______This year has been very difficult for investors, so if your portfolio is hurting, you may seek solace in knowing that even the most elite investors have been struggling as well. Above we've posted photos of five such elite investors (from left to right) Kirk Kerkorian, Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, Sheldon Adelson and Gary the Chimp. We are not going to compare the investing acumen of these highly skilled individuals, but rather provide a brief update on their 2008 performance, just for the record...
Kirk Kerkorian:
Bought $1B of Ford (F) shares in April at $7. He has a 74.3% LOSS
Bought $700M of DPTR shares in Feb at $19. He has a 71.9% LOSS
Owns a large stake in MGM Grand (MGM). In '08, an 86.6% LOSS
Warren Buffett:
Bought $5B of GS shares in Sept at $125. He has a 40.3% LOSS
Bought $3B of GE shares in Oct at $22.25. He has a 20.0% LOSS
Runs Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A shares in '08 have a 21.2% LOSS
Runs Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B shares in '08 have a 23.6% LOSS
Carl Icahn:
Bought $1.4B of YHOO shares in April at $26.3. He has a 56.8% LOSS
Bought $1.3B of MOT shares in Feb at $9.1. He has a 52.3% LOSS
Sheldon Adelson:
Owns a 65% stake in Las Vegas Sands (LVS). In '08, a 94.8% LOSS
Gary the Chimp:
Gary invested in 10 stocks in '08 and has a 2.4% GAIN
...
39 comments:
"In the latest sign of how the financial crisis and steep drop in commodity prices since July have blindsided some of the most prominent investors, energy crusader T. Boone Pickens said he and his BP Capital investment firm have lost some $2 billion since oil and natural-gas prices started tumbling in July". - WSJ http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/27/the-bloom-is-off-of-t-boone/
Thank you for posting this. Now I have something to show my Mother who, in her bid to remain in denial, keeps quoting Buffet's inane push to "buy American" as her 401k plunges into the abyss.
I think you meant MGM not LVS for Kirkorian. Close enough.
ak, you're right, just updated the post, giving Kirk a few extra % points... didn't help him much:)
Devblog,
Isn't it amazing that these billionaire investors can't spot a technical breakdown? We, along with many others, sold the Ag names (which basically run in tandem with oil/commodities) back in July. We're nowhere near billionaire status like T. Boone Pickens, and yet we can spot a chart failure as obvious as that.
You would think these guys could afford to hire at least one chartist with veto power to keep them out of trouble. None of the charts (F, DPTR, MGM, GS, GE, YHOO, MOT, LVS) are buys. They were downtrending stocks trading below downtrending moving averages at the time these guys bought them, and they still are. Gary knows these basic rules and these guys don't? What gives?
Chimichurri,
Many people are finding out that Wall Street is kind of a giant scam, but it's ok. Acknowledging that all stocks eventually go to zero is like step 1 in a 12 step program. Once you remove yourself from the delusion that stocks have real value, you can move on to step 2, which is figuring out how to make the scam work for you.
It's an interesting and funny comparison, I'm still laughing. :D But don't forget that they are investors and not traders. They hiding behind this fact. In a long-term run maybe they will be winners. Maybe. :)
Couldn't have said it better myself Snot. Once you simply become a surfer of the scam then all you need to concern yourself with is finding those waves.
I read that article on Bloomberg you posted about oil demand and while it makes sense today, with today's situation, I find the IEA just like the S&P ratings agencies...always REACTING but never being PROACTIVE, ya know? They just go with the trend, overstate it, and then later when things turn around they'll come back (again) and revise their "forecasts" (again) and hope that everyone forgot what they said 6 months earlier so they can all keep their jobs.
And for the IEA to reduce their "forecast" on worldwide oil demand for the year 2030?!?!?!? Are you kidding me? Predicting oil demand 21 years out into the future? Ludicrous. Anyone who thinks they can do that is out of their minds.
I'll be adding more DXO if it breaks below $3.99, then again if it breaks below $3.49, then again if it breaks below $2.99 and by that time a barrel would have to get down to about $39 or so? Possible, but it seems unlikely it would stay down that low for very long.
Plus I have faith that the Middle East is a tinder box and that some nutter will be striking matches sooner or later over there so no worries.
I playing with DTO instead DXO since 09.02 (crude oil's head and shoulders top has broken).
IMHO don't fight against the trend.
The oil is in strong correlation with the US dollar. IMHO OPEC's says doesn't mean anything. Just look at the tape. Parabolic rise, parabolic fall.
Forgot to mention that I'll be adding more SSO at 25, 24, 23, 22, 21 & 20. Let's crash and burn over the next few days! :)
Watch GOOG today! If broke 300, then market will head south quick...
GOOG, MSFT, IBM, INTC, big names, the list is endless. :)
To average down is average Joe's method. Average Joe is a looser.
Think about it.
Dude, with all respect I think you are taking with too far with the chimp. It is ok for fun, These guys have invested for over 20 years.
Just chill a bit with the rhetoric.
Anon- with an individual stock averaging down IS a losing strategy. Averaging down on an ETF based on the S&P 500 is a winner's strategy. Oil is a little scary but it's worth taking a chance on because if you have any sort of time horizon at all you'll end up making money, or at worst breaking even. Better than losing your butts like the "pros" are doing. Also just to let you know, "loser" is spelled with one "O", not two. And I prefer "Average Joe's" Gym!
Anon II- The point IS that those guys have invested for over 20 years and they're losing their butts. What was your point?
Pullo, you hit the nail on the head. Buffett, Icahn and Kerkorian are some of the most brilliant minds in the industry. Their success is well deserved. Our post just intends to highlight how risky the stock market is, and how humbling it can be.
If Buffet, Icahn and Kerkorian can lose so much, average Joe's like us shouldn't stand a chance. If you've lost less than the indexes have this year, consider yourself way ahead of the game.
And the idea of giving these guys the benefit of the doubt and understanding that they are investors with 20 year time horizons does not explain away losses of 70% to 90%.
These were major screw-ups. Kerkorian was quoted as saying he lived one year too long.
Agree that oil is a good long term bet, but it's still a downtrending chart. Really no different than buying DDM or SSO!
And the idea of being able to predict demand even one year out is ludicrous. It's like the BDI, they can never pin that down even 3 months out. This lack of predictability explains the low p/e's for the drybulk sector.
EEV proves to be a better hedge against the U.S. indexes than FXP.
Better diversification against China's government.
"Sales of solar cells and panels have risen sharply in recent quarters as companies such as JA Solar ramped up production of the clean power source, but the global economic slowdown has caused that growth to slow, leading to a supply glut. "At this moment the market reaction has been panic," Samuel Yang, chief executive officer, told a conference call."
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4AB3W420081112?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
Will solars go the way of ferts?
You're getting your answer on how low JASO can go... zero.
Eventually all stocks go to zero, it's just a matter of how long they can resist the pull.
Look at GM, it's resisted it for about 70 years now!
It's funny how people talk about Goldman Sachs as being the strongest pillar in the financial world, as if its stock will be higher 10 years from now. Did you know that in 1987, the biggest name in the industry was Salomon? Where are they today?
Snot, we're getting close to 30 for DDM (in a hurry, I might add). Best guess as to whether you think the channel will hold?
Snot,
I'm new to this blog so forgive me if you answered this before.
What books would you recommend to help in becoming good at TA or a good "chartist"?
thx
Ruben
P.S. Great blog!!
Paulson LIE! Bait and switch! DOW to 7288.
MS will be $6 soon. No debts buyout...
GE make new low today. I am looking to get long at $12...
Yep, EEV looks to be a good choice for the ETF of the month club.
Here's a nice ETF screener:
http://finance.yahoo.com/etf/browser/mkt?k=5&c=0&f=0
If anyone knows of a better one, let me know. I know Morningstar has one too.
I'm hedging FXP with ACH (that i bought yesterday). And they are both up today.
Time will tell how this one will go.
Snot,
What do you think about FXY?
WHATEVER me-no-speak-ee the English anonymous poster. What would Paulson "bait and switch" the market to anyway?
He asked congress for bail out money to buy bad assets from bank but now he said he will not do that...
How we perform tomorrow all depends on how Walmart does! Anyone have any predictions for tomorrow?
sbbuilder,
It's looking more and more like the channel may be off the table. The Nasdaq broke down already. The bigger question now is do we hold the October lows or not.
You know how we always say we don't outright "time" the market? What we do instead is to buy in little pieces, for better or worse. We bought some DDM yesterday at 31.9, and are looking to add more today if it drops hard into the close.
We're clinging to FXP/EEV as a lifeline in case the lows don't hold. If you've had it with FXP, you may want to try EEV. It's doing what FXP is supposed to do.
hk22, FXY is a nice chart, but the moves are small for a hedge. We like the larger percentage moves that EEV gives us because we can hold very little of it. From Oct 21 to Oct 24, FXY went up 10% while EEV went up 60%.
GOOG, BCSI, ANW, MMM...
Gary's shorts are having a great day.
We have little doubt that BCSI is heading for bankruptcy. That chart (and the volume dry-up) has bankruptcy written all over it.
ANW possible bankruptcy candidate also, but too early to say. It's in a better business than BCSI.
GOOG broke 300 and is in virgin territory on the downside, so while it may not be a bankruptcy candidate with its large cash position, it could go a lot lower before this is all over.
If AAPL, INTC and IBM break their lows, as EBAY and YHOO already have, it'll be game over for the Nasdaq. MSFT is threatening to complete the break of its support today.
STP, SPWRA, JASO have already broken support and will find a new range to trade in with recent support as their new resistance. Nick Darvas box theory again.
Ruben,
Secrets of Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein is excellent for the basics of defining the 4 basic stages of a chart's cycle. A more fun read with dated, but still relevent info, is Nick Darvas's How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market.
GOOG is making new low. Market is DEAD!
I worked very hard over the years as a sales executive. I was able to save 1.2 Million dollars in commissions over a 9 year period. I live very much below my means. I drive a car that cost 8K and live in a 300K condo in Chicago. I come from a very poor family so I never really spent my earning. I simply invested them.Anyhow, I provided all of my savings to a broker that has lost almost all of the money. I have 370K left. I wish I had known of you earlier Mr. Snotwheel for the sake of my family and my future. Your advise is sound, logical and safe. I dont know what to do at this point but I know that I would rather trust my money under my own management than that of Smith Barney. I'm a big looser and feeling defeated!
DTO was once again good to me. :)
Pullo, had you or will you average down DXO? :)
I think the 50 USD level (of oil) will not hold. 2 months ago I said 40 USD should be the bottom, but who knows, an instrument can go lower or higher than anybody expects.
Anon, sorry to hear about your financial losses. You're not a loser. Everyone goes through the same introduction to the markets. And this time around, you're certainly noe alone! You should read Nick Darvas's book, "How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market". It will show you that even back in the 50's, people went through the same learning curve you're going through. Figuring out that Wall Street is a scam is step one. The good news is that it gets a lot better once you take control of your own account.
Snotwheel,
Perhaps the following applies?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={D1D98B9B-F8A6-4174-9563-38B2439A6090}
MARK HULBERT
Getting it right and still losing
Commentary: You can get a lot of things right and still lose big
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:00 p.m. EST Nov. 11, 2008
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